Tesla Stock Surges 15% on Musk Buyback & Global FSD Rollout

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) delivered a remarkable 15.4% surge in its share price over the past week, driven by two significant catalysts: CEO Elon Musk’s personal purchase of $1 billion worth of Tesla stock and the successful rollout of the company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature in Australia and New Zealand. This latest rally extends Tesla’s extraordinary performance trajectory, with the stock now trading 78.9% higher than six months ago and boasting an 86.9% gain over the past year, significantly outperforming the broader S&P 500 index.

The timing of Musk’s substantial investment signals strong confidence in Tesla’s future prospects at a time when investors have expressed concerns about market volatility in 2025. Since its initial public offering on June 29, 2010, at $17 per share (approximately $1 when adjusted for stock splits), Tesla has delivered a staggering 26,700% return to early investors, cementing its status as one of the most successful public offerings in modern market history.

Tesla’s journey from niche electric vehicle manufacturer to market leader represents one of the most dramatic corporate transformations in recent memory. The company’s financial evolution is particularly striking: from revenues of $4.046 billion and a net loss of $888.7 million in 2015, Tesla has grown to $97.690 billion in revenue in 2024 while maintaining profitability since 2020. The Model S became the best-selling plug-in electric car in both 2015 and 2016, followed by the mass-market Model 3 sedan that dominated electric car sales from 2018 to 2021.

The introduction of the Model Y SUV in 2019 marked another turning point, with deliveries beginning in 2020 coinciding with Tesla’s transition to consistent profitability. Beyond vehicle sales, Tesla’s energy storage business and expanding Supercharger network have contributed significantly to revenue growth, diversifying the company’s income streams beyond pure automotive manufacturing.

Tesla’s sustained success stems from several strategic advantages that distinguish it from competitors. The company’s relentless focus on improving manufacturing margins through cost reduction and operational efficiency has resulted in strong revenue and net income gains since 2020. Tesla’s gigafactories in Shanghai, China, and Berlin, Germany, are particularly important strategic assets, enabling the company to reduce export-related red tape and tariffs for upcoming electric vehicles, which should result in lower overseas prices and increased sales.

In autonomous driving technology, Tesla maintains a significant lead over competitors such as GM’s Cruise and Alphabet’s Waymo, though Chinese companies like Apollo Go and WeRide are emerging as well-equipped competitors in the rapidly growing robotaxi field. Tesla’s diversified business segments—including Supercharger networks, energy storage, and battery technology—provide additional revenue streams and technological initiatives that most pure EV manufacturers cannot match.

While Wall Street’s consensus 12-month price target for Tesla stands at $325.58 per share—representing a 23.5% discount to recent prices—long-term projections tell a more optimistic story. 24/7 Wall St. forecasts Tesla’s revenue growing from $112.09 billion in 2025 to $297.43 billion in 2030, with normalized earnings per share climbing from $1.91 to $11.24 over the same period.

The projected stock price trajectory shows substantial upside potential, particularly in the later years of the decade. By 2026, analysts project a stock price of $461.73 (8.4% upside), growing to $556.71 by 2027 (30.7% upside), and reaching $1,116.86 by 2030—representing a remarkable 162.3% potential gain from current levels. These projections assume continued execution on Tesla’s business strategy, successful expansion into new markets, and maintenance of technological leadership in the evolving electric vehicle and autonomous driving landscapes.

Despite near-term analyst caution reflected in hold recommendations, the underlying fundamentals and growth trajectory suggest Tesla remains positioned for long-term success. Investors weighing Tesla’s future performance must consider both the company’s proven ability to innovate and execute, as well as the competitive pressures and market dynamics that will shape the electric vehicle industry through the end of the decade.