XRP Repeating 2017 Bull Pattern, Analyst Says

Dark Defender’s analysis begins with what he calls the “left side” of XRP’s chart—the 2017 period that serves as the benchmark for bullish momentum. During this phase, XRP exhibited all the classic signs of an impulsive wave structure: candles consistently closing above prior highs, price holding firmly above Ichimoku Cloud support, elevated Relative Strength Index readings, and monthly closes above a key exponential moving average. “XRP had an impulsive wave by the end of 2017,” the analyst wrote, noting that “this caused the RSI spike with a huge momentum… Volume and the speed were high, so was Momentum.” This powerful thrust concluded what Dark Defender identifies as a “five-wave” advance before the asset entered a multi-month triangle consolidation pattern.

What made the 2017 setup particularly significant, according to the analyst, was how the RSI behaved during the consolidation period. Despite the price action slowing into a triangle formation, the RSI flattened but remained above his smoothed baseline—a signal he interprets as bullish continuation rather than exhaustion. This technical resilience provided the foundation for XRP’s subsequent vertical run, establishing a template that Dark Defender now sees repeating in current market conditions.

The middle section of Dark Defender’s analysis focuses on 2021, which he characterizes as a corrective period that stands in stark contrast to both the 2017 impulse and current market structure. “First and foremost, the structure in 2021 was a CORRECTIVE STRUCTURE,” he emphasized in his analysis. During this phase, XRP’s technical foundations deteriorated significantly: price traded below the Ichimoku Clouds, the triangle formation lacked any candles above orange resistance levels, and the exponential moving average was broken to the downside.

Momentum signatures weakened considerably during this period, with the RSI showing what Dark Defender describes as “medium strength… followed by low strength.” The analyst also contextualizes this corrective phase within the broader market environment, reminding readers that “the lawsuit was ongoing”—referring to the SEC’s legal action against Ripple that created significant headline risk and depressed trend quality. This combination of technical breakdown and fundamental uncertainty created what Dark Defender identifies as a clear A-B corrective structure, with the A-wave representing decline from the 2018 peak and the B-wave rally topping at $1.96.

The right-hand panel of Dark Defender’s analysis is where his thesis turns decisively bullish. He points to a “CRUCIAL BREAK” he flagged on November 10, 2024, which preceded what he believes is a lasting upside extension that has reestablished an impulsive regime. “We announced a CRUCIAL BREAK… that XRP was going to break the ATH. Yes, 1 day before the extensive break,” he wrote, linking back to his prior post. This breakout has delivered the necessary checklist for trend validation that mirrors the 2017 setup.

Current technical signals include monthly Heikin Ashi closes above previous highs, price reclaiming and holding above Ichimoku Cloud support, a series of closes above the red EMA baseline, and a resurgent RSI profile that Dark Defender explicitly compares to the 2017 impulse. “The IMPULSIVE WAVE structure has not yet been finalised,” he cautions, noting that a February 2025 pullback was corrective within a larger advance rather than signaling the end of the move. The RSI sequence that degraded in 2021 has now flipped back to what he calls a “similar high momentum like in 2017, but not in 2021.”

Dark Defender’s comparative analysis hinges on consistent signals across timeframes and technical tools. In both 2017 and the current setup, candles closed above resistance within triangle formations instead of failing at the boundary, price maintained position above Cloud support rather than trading beneath it, and the moving-average “red line” acted as dynamic support rather than resistance. These parallel conditions form the foundation of his bullish outlook.

While the analyst refrained from naming an explicit price target in his latest analysis, he had previously outlined specific projections. In an October 2 post, Dark Defender wrote, “We were right on XRP. RSI weekly break, weekly trend break, targets are clear. Nothing can stop what’s coming,” sharing a projected $10.47 target as the culmination of XRP’s anticipated wave-5 structure. At the time of his analysis, XRP traded at $2.80, representing significant upside potential if his wave count proves accurate.

Dark Defender’s concluding remarks strike an unequivocally constructive tone. “Considering all the above facts, I remain bullish on XRP and the broader blockchain,” he wrote. “We are entering a new era… and I think the future of Ripple and XRP is bright.” His analysis suggests that the market conditions that fostered XRP’s last explosive phase are, in his reading, back on the board, with the sustainability of monthly closes, momentum above the Cloud, and respect for the EMA baseline serving as key indicators to watch as the impulsive structure develops.