XRP Nears Key Inflection Point: Analysts Eye $2.22 Breakout

Analyst Osemka (@Osemka8) frames XRP’s broader market structure on the 2-day chart as a classic flat correction built on top of the 2021 high. He describes the price action as oscillating within a horizontal “Reaccumulation” band, with the floor of this range aligning precisely with that 2021 peak. This level has repeatedly acted as support, bouncing multiple rallies that were subsequently capped by midrange resistance in the low-to-mid $2 zone. Osemka treats the January price spike as the cycle top, mapping an internal A–B–C corrective sequence within the range.

Within this structure, Osemka highlights the B leg, which forms a dotted ascending channel he labels as a 3-legged “abc” wave. “That dotted ascending range in the middle (3 legged abc wave in B) has me optimistic as that is a corrective move that is synonymous for a flat correction,” he explains. This interpretation supports his view that “the top was in January and this indeed is only a sideways correction.” The current C leg is contained within a downward “Corrective channel” pointing back toward the lower band of the range.

Critically, Osemka argues that even a deeper test of the $2.00 support within this C leg would not invalidate the bullish structural thesis. “If we end up taking the lower end of the range with C leg it’ll remain to be seen. But if so, it’d be a great buying opportunity,” he notes. He further positions XRP as “a perfect example on why I view BTC also as a flat correction with the top in January,” contrasting XRP’s “very clean” pattern with what he calls a “messy” Bitcoin chart.

While Osemka provides the macro framework, analyst Dom (@traderview2) zooms in on the microstructure of the last six weeks, identifying a pattern that could trigger a move back toward the upper band of the range. Dom highlights a “perfect 3 drive pattern” on an inverted chart, which he describes as “a very accurate reversal setup in crypto.” On the standard chart, this corresponds to three consecutive downside pushes that have failed to extend lower, followed by the formation of what he identifies as a higher low (HL). “We can see a HL has finally formed which can hint at the first sign of a trend change developing,” Dom writes.

The focal point of Dom’s analysis is the monthly rolling Volume-Weighted Average Price (rVWAP), which he pinpoints at approximately $2.22. He asserts this level as the critical pivot for bulls. “Bulls needs to regain the monthly rVWAP around $2.22 and that would be the shift for a rally back towards ~$2.50,” Dom states. This $2.50 target area aligns with higher VWAP clusters and the upper boundary of Osemka’s horizontal range, creating a confluence of resistance.

Dom’s thesis is supported by current market data. He notes that “orderbooks are clear,” indicating relatively clean liquidity overhead, and points to a recovering skew after a “washed-out short side.” This combination, he argues, creates optimal conditions for a breakout. “If there was a time, it’s now for this trend to shift,” he concludes, emphasizing the immediacy of the setup.

The convergence of these two independent analytical frameworks creates a clearly defined technical battlefield for XRP. The cryptocurrency is currently compressed between three key levels: the long-defended $2.00 support (the 2021 high and range floor), the $2.22 monthly rVWAP trigger level, and the ~$2.50 upside target representing the range top and cycle high.

The potential outcomes are starkly binary, as outlined by both analysts. A successful reclaim of the $2.22 level could validate the reversal patterns and initiate a rally toward $2.50, confirming the flat correction as a bullish consolidation phase. Conversely, Dom warns that failure would lead to “acceptance under $2” which he characterizes as “the end of year is ugly.” Such a breakdown would represent a decisive loss of the foundational support band and likely trigger a deeper completion of the C leg in Osemka’s corrective structure.

At the time of analysis, XRP traded at $2.1798, hovering just below the pivotal $2.22 monthly rVWAP. This positioning underscores the critical nature of the current zone, which the combined analysis of Dom and Osemka defines as one of the clearest technical inflection points on the XRP chart this year. The market now watches to see whether the identified accumulation and reversal patterns will catalyze an upward shift or if the structure will fail, leading to a new phase of downside.