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Introduction
XRP is showing signs of hesitation after its recent rebound, struggling to break through key resistance levels. Technical analysis suggests the cryptocurrency may be entering the final consolidation phase before its next major price movement. According to analyst CasiTrades, current market behavior aligns with Elliott Wave patterns indicating potential for one more downward wave to exhaust selling pressure before a potential reversal toward higher targets.
Key Points
- XRP's current price action aligns with Elliott Wave Theory's Wave 4 consolidation, suggesting potential for one more downward wave before reversal
- Significant data discrepancies exist across exchanges, with XRP hitting lows ranging from below $1 to much higher levels during the recent crash
- Key Fibonacci retracement levels at $1.46 and $1.35 could trigger a powerful reversal, potentially leading to an impulsive wave targeting $6.50-$10.00
Market Momentum Loses Steam After Sharp Rebound
Following last Friday’s dramatic market wipeout, XRP managed to stage an impressive rebound, but that momentum now appears to be fading. According to technical analyst CasiTrades, such pauses are natural after strong market moves and represent a critical juncture in XRP’s price trajectory. The current stalling action around key resistance levels suggests the cryptocurrency is struggling to maintain its recovery momentum.
CasiTrades emphasizes that markets rarely pivot directly after a major Wave 3 decline under Elliott Wave Theory. Instead, they typically complete an exhausted Wave 5 move to wrap up the impulse cycle before a fresh uptrend can begin. The analyst notes that XRP has not yet demonstrated the strength needed to invalidate the possibility of one final dip, with price action currently stalling around Wave 4 resistance levels.
The absence of a strong breakthrough above the $2.82 resistance mark indicates that a sharp V-shaped recovery may not be underway. CasiTrades believes the market may still require one more wave down to fully exhaust selling pressure and reset market sentiment, setting the stage for a more sustainable upward move.
Elliott Wave Theory Points to Critical Consolidation Phase
The recent price action fits neatly within an Elliott Wave pattern, suggesting XRP may be entering its final consolidation phase before the next major move unfolds. According to CasiTrades’ analysis, the current slowdown aligns with Wave 4 in Elliott Wave Theory – a stage where markets consolidate before preparing for the final impulsive wave of the cycle.
This technical framework provides context for understanding why XRP’s momentum has stalled despite the strong rebound from recent lows. The Wave 4 phase typically serves as a breathing period that allows the market to gather strength for the next significant directional move, whether upward or downward.
CasiTrades explains that the recent market crash may have shifted XRP’s structure from a shallow Wave 4 correction to a broader macro Wave 2 retracement. This structural shift could have significant implications, as macro Wave 2 retracements often precede the strongest impulse waves in market cycles, potentially setting the stage for more substantial gains.
Exchange Data Discrepancies Complicate Analysis
Market data across exchanges has become highly inconsistent, creating challenges for accurate technical analysis. CasiTrades highlights that each trading platform displayed different lows during the recent crash, with some XRP pairs dipping below $1 while others maintained much higher levels. This disparity means there is no ‘universal’ XRP chart that accurately reflects price action across all venues.
On Binance USD, XRP’s price wicked as low as $0.77 during the crash, representing a sharp 72% drop from local highs that fell below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Such extreme variations between exchanges underscore the importance of traders focusing on the specific platforms they use for trading to ensure analytical precision.
The data chaos complicates traditional technical analysis but doesn’t invalidate key support and resistance levels. CasiTrades advises market participants to maintain discipline by concentrating on the exchange data most relevant to their trading activities rather than attempting to reconcile conflicting information across multiple platforms.
Critical Fibonacci Levels and Future Price Scenarios
Despite the recent volatility and data inconsistencies, several key technical levels remain clearly defined. CasiTrades identifies Fibonacci retracement levels around $1.46 (0.618 Fib) and the golden pocket near $1.35 as critical zones of interest. These areas align with multiple technical factors, including Wave 5 extensions, macro Fibonacci retracements, and Wave 2 targets.
While the analyst believes the extreme lows seen during the crash are unlikely to repeat, a retest of these deeper Fibonacci levels could trigger a powerful reversal. Such a move would potentially set the stage for the long-anticipated impulsive wave that targets the $6.50 to $10.00 range, representing significant upside potential from current levels.
The silver lining in the recent market chaos, according to CasiTrades, is that the crash may have accelerated the completion of necessary corrective phases. If XRP successfully navigates the current consolidation and establishes a solid foundation at key support levels, the groundwork could be laid for a substantial upward impulse wave in the coming cycles.
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