VanEck: Bitcoin Could Hit $180K Tied to Money Supply

VanEck’s analysis reveals a compelling statistical relationship between Bitcoin and global monetary expansion. Since 2014, the firm has documented a roughly 0.5 correlation between Bitcoin’s price performance and total global M2 money supply growth. During this period, global liquidity across the top five currencies has dramatically expanded from approximately $50 trillion to nearly $100 trillion – effectively doubling the world’s money supply. Against this backdrop of unprecedented monetary expansion, Bitcoin’s price has surged approximately 700-fold, suggesting the cryptocurrency has functioned as a hedge against currency debasement.

The firm frames Bitcoin’s current market position at about 2% of global money supply, creating a simple but powerful benchmark for institutional and retail allocation decisions. VanEck’s analysis suggests that owning less than this 2% allocation effectively represents a bet against Bitcoin as an asset class. This numeric approach provides a clear framework for understanding how money printing translates into asset demand, though the firm carefully notes this relationship offers meaningful insight rather than perfect prediction capability.

While long-term trends are tied to monetary fundamentals, VanEck’s research identifies futures markets as the dominant driver of Bitcoin’s short-term price movements. The firm’s statistical analysis shows that approximately 73% of Bitcoin’s price variance since October 2020 can be traced directly to shifts in futures open interest, with a remarkably high t-statistic of 71 supporting the strength of this relationship. This finding underscores how derivative markets have become the primary mechanism for price discovery in the cryptocurrency space.

The fragility of this futures-driven market structure became evident in early October 2025, when open interest peaked at $52 billion on October 6th before collapsing to $39 billion by October 10th following an eight-hour, 20% plunge in Bitcoin’s price. This volatility occurred against a backdrop of $145 billion in cash collateral backing these contracts and borrowed positions that have climbed near the 95th percentile at times. Historically, positions above 30% have not persisted for more than 75 days, indicating how crowded bets can unwind rapidly and create the sudden price swings that characterize cryptocurrency markets.

VanEck’s analysis extends beyond Bitcoin to consider broader market rotations between safe havens and risk assets. The firm interprets gold’s recent $2.5 trillion market cap correction as a cooling off period rather than a loss of faith in traditional safe havens. This perspective suggests investors are dynamically shifting between protection and growth exposure based on macroeconomic developments, with Bitcoin positioned to capture flows when risk appetite increases.

The firm identifies specific catalysts that could accelerate capital rotation into Bitcoin, including softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data or easing trade tensions. Such developments could support scenarios where Bitcoin moves to the $130,000-$132,000 range in Q1 2026. VanEck’s shorter-term targets include $129,200 and $141,000, with a clear rise above $125,000 signaling renewed buying strength. Current price action has been consolidating between $108,000 and $125,000, with the firm identifying a critical “Whale Buy Zone” near $108,600. Maintaining support above $108,000 is viewed as essential for preserving bullish momentum toward these projected targets.