Trump’s Trade Threats Drive Bitcoin’s October Volatility

October 2025 marked a departure from Bitcoin’s traditional seasonal bullish patterns as geopolitical developments took center stage. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy announcements toward China became the primary driver of BTC price action, overwhelming what many traders had anticipated would be a positive ‘Uptober’ period. The cryptocurrency’s continued sensitivity to geopolitical risk was demonstrated through sharp price movements that directly correlated with Trump’s China-related rhetoric throughout the month.

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, which measures aggregate market psychology through unrealized gains and losses, provided a clear window into investor emotions during this volatile period. According to CryptoQuant, geopolitical shocks like Trump’s trade threats don’t just shake prices; they also ‘reshape market sentiment.’ This observation was borne out by the NUPL’s fluctuations throughout October, reflecting how quickly investor confidence could shift based on diplomatic developments between the United States and China.

The month’s volatility began in earnest on October 10 when President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. Bitcoin immediately tumbled by 8.4% to around $104,800 as investors reacted to the escalating trade tensions. Simultaneously, the NUPL indicator dipped below 0.50, a level historically associated with rising fear and profit-taking behavior. This sharp decline demonstrated Bitcoin’s vulnerability to U.S.-China trade relations despite its decentralized nature.

A few days later, as Trump adopted a softer tone toward China, Bitcoin recovered toward the mid-$110,000 range while NUPL reflected cautious optimism. However, this recovery proved short-lived when renewed tensions emerged on October 14 with new export controls and port fees, triggering another sell-off that pushed both BTC price and NUPL lower again. The pattern established that Bitcoin’s price trajectory was now closely tied to the ebb and flow of diplomatic relations between the world’s two largest economies.

Sentiment began to stabilize only after October 24, when news broke of Trump’s upcoming summit with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Bitcoin climbed above $115,000, and NUPL started to recover as diplomatic engagement replaced confrontation. The positive momentum accelerated on October 26 when reports emerged that Trump might cancel the tariff plan, further boosting confidence and pushing NUPL to approach 0.52, indicating growing market strength.

As Bitcoin rebounded from its October lows, over-leveraged short traders faced significant liquidations. The cryptocurrency established strong support above the $114,000 zone, a level that recently acted as a defensive line for buyers. According to crypto analyst Ted Pillows, the next critical threshold for Bitcoin is reclaiming the $118,000 zone, which has repeatedly served as short-term resistance throughout October’s choppy trading. Pillows suggested that a decisive move above this resistance level could pave the way for a new all-time high within the next one to two weeks.

Not all market experts share this growing optimism. Another prominent analyst, Ali Martinez, warned that Bitcoin could soon face profit-taking pressure, noting that the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a sell signal on the daily chart. This technical tool is often used to identify potential trend exhaustion and suggests that the recent recovery might be vulnerable to a pullback. The divergence between these expert opinions reflects the ongoing uncertainty in cryptocurrency markets when geopolitical factors dominate price action.

The events of October 2025 demonstrate that Bitcoin, despite its maturation as an asset class, remains highly responsive to geopolitical developments, particularly those involving major economic powers like the United States and China. The month’s price action showed that traditional seasonal patterns can be quickly overwhelmed by unexpected political developments, creating both risks and opportunities for traders navigating this evolving landscape.