Strategy’s S&P 500 Entry Likely Despite Bitcoin Slowdown

Crypto market intelligence firm 10X Research has identified a significant opportunity for Strategy’s inclusion in the S&P 500 index, estimating a 60-70% probability that the stock would be added effective December 19. This assessment comes despite recent challenges in the cryptocurrency market and Strategy’s own stock performance. The potential inclusion represents a watershed moment for cryptocurrency adoption within traditional finance indices, marking what could be the first major corporate Bitcoin holder to join the prestigious United States stock index.

The timing of this potential S&P 500 inclusion is particularly noteworthy given current market conditions. According to 10X Research’s Wednesday report, Strategy’s path to inclusion remains strong even as Bitcoin purchases slow and investor sentiment fades. The analysis suggests that the company’s fundamental financial performance, particularly its upcoming earnings report, will be the determining factor for stock inclusion rather than short-term market sentiment or Bitcoin acquisition patterns.

Strategy’s position as the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder plays a crucial role in its financial outlook. The company is set to release its third-quarter 2025 earnings on Thursday, with expectations of including an estimated $3.8 billion gain from fair-value Bitcoin accounting. This substantial gain reflects the company’s significant BTC holdings and their impact on corporate financial statements under current accounting standards.

The relationship between Strategy’s Bitcoin strategy and its potential S&P 500 inclusion represents a fascinating intersection of cryptocurrency and traditional finance. While the company has experienced a decline in stock price and a slowdown in Bitcoin purchases, the expected $3.8 billion gain from its existing BTC holdings could provide the financial boost needed to meet S&P 500 inclusion criteria. This dynamic highlights how corporate Bitcoin strategies can influence traditional financial metrics and stock market opportunities.

The potential inclusion of Strategy in the S&P 500 carries significant implications for both the cryptocurrency and traditional finance sectors. For the crypto market, it represents validation of corporate Bitcoin strategies and their compatibility with mainstream financial indices. For traditional finance, it marks a potential turning point in how cryptocurrency holdings are viewed within established market frameworks in the United States.

10X Research’s analysis indicates that a profitable quarter for Strategy would be the key determinant for S&P 500 inclusion, with the probability ranging between 60% and 70%. This assessment comes from the crypto intelligence firm’s understanding of both cryptocurrency markets and traditional finance requirements. The timing of the potential December 19 effective date provides a clear timeline for market participants to monitor Strategy’s progress toward this significant milestone.

Despite current market challenges, including slowing Bitcoin purchases and fading investor sentiment, Strategy’s corporate Bitcoin strategy continues to position the company for potential inclusion in one of the world’s most watched stock indices. The coming weeks, culminating in the December 19 potential inclusion date, will be critical for assessing whether corporate cryptocurrency holdings can successfully bridge the gap between crypto markets and traditional finance indices.