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Introduction
Solana’s price is attempting a recovery wave after dropping to $145, facing key resistance near $166. The cryptocurrency broke above a bearish trend line but remains below critical moving averages. Technical indicators suggest the recovery could continue if SOL clears the $165-166 resistance zone, though failure to overcome these levels could trigger another decline toward lower support areas.
Key Points
- SOL broke above a key bearish trend line at $155 on the hourly chart, signaling potential recovery momentum
- Major resistance levels are concentrated at $165-166 and $172, with a break above $172 potentially triggering move toward $188
- Technical indicators show conflicting signals with MACD remaining bearish while RSI has moved above the 50 level
Solana's Recent Downtrend and Recovery Attempt
Solana price failed to maintain stability above the $175 level and initiated a fresh decline, mirroring broader cryptocurrency market movements seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The SOL/USD pair, trading on Kraken exchange data, declined significantly below multiple support levels at $170 and $165, gaining bearish momentum as it dropped below $160. The decline culminated in the formation of a low at $145, marking a significant pullback from recent highs and setting the stage for the current recovery attempt.
The recent recovery wave saw Solana break above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the $188 swing high to the $145 low. More importantly, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $155 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. This technical development provided the first positive signal for traders watching for potential reversal patterns in the cryptocurrency’s price action.
Critical Resistance Levels and Recovery Scenarios
Despite the recent recovery attempt, Solana continues to trade below $165 and the 100-hourly simple moving average, indicating that bearish pressure remains. The immediate resistance cluster is concentrated between $165 and $166, with the latter representing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the $188 swing high to the $145 low. A successful break above this zone could signal stronger recovery momentum.
The main resistance level for Solana sits at $172, where a successful close above this zone could set the pace for another steady increase. Should the cryptocurrency manage to overcome this barrier, the next key resistance levels would be $180 and potentially a retest of the $188 swing high. Any additional gains beyond these levels would require significant buying pressure and positive market sentiment toward the broader cryptocurrency sector.
Downside Risks and Support Structure
If SOL fails to rise above the $166 resistance level, the cryptocurrency could resume its downward trajectory. Initial support on the downside is positioned near the $160 zone, which previously acted as both support and resistance during recent trading sessions. The first major support level is significantly stronger at $155, coinciding with the recently broken bearish trend line that now may serve as support.
A decisive break below the $155 support level could trigger further selling pressure, potentially sending the price toward the $148 support zone. Should bearish momentum intensify and result in a close below the $148 support, Solana could decline toward the $142 zone in the near term. These support levels represent critical areas where buyers may attempt to establish positions, making them essential for traders monitoring potential entry points.
Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment
Technical indicators present a mixed picture for Solana’s near-term direction. The hourly MACD for SOL/USD is losing pace in the bearish zone, suggesting that selling pressure may be diminishing, though it remains in negative territory. Meanwhile, the hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) has moved above the 50 level, indicating improving momentum that could support further recovery attempts if sustained.
The concentration of major support levels at $155 and $148, combined with resistance at $165 and $166, creates clearly defined trading ranges for market participants. This technical analysis framework provides traders with specific levels to monitor for potential breakout or breakdown scenarios. The conflicting signals from technical indicators underscore the uncertainty in Solana’s current market position, requiring careful risk management for those trading the cryptocurrency.
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