Dogecoin at Critical $0.18 Support Level: Analyst

Market analyst Ali Martinez, known on X as @ali_charts, published a one-day chart on November 1 showing Dogecoin oscillating inside an ascending channel and testing its lower boundary. At the time of analysis, Binance’s perpetual pair traded near $0.187, positioned at what Martinez identified as a critical “buy-the-dip” zone. The technical map presents two distinct paths: either a rebound from this support level toward the channel’s midline near $0.26 and ultimately the upper rail around $0.33, or a breakdown that would eject DOGE into a materially lower trading range.

Martinez summarized the bullish scenario in a separate post attached to the same chart, stating: “$0.18 looks like a strong buy-the-dip zone for Dogecoin before a potential run toward $0.26 or $0.33.” When pressed by users about what had changed in his analysis, Martinez maintained consistency, replying: “Nothing has changed. On both posts everything depends on the $0.18 support level.” This technical framework establishes $0.18 as the decisive threshold that will determine whether Dogecoin maintains its ascending channel pattern or breaks down into new territory.

The technical analysis is reinforced by on-chain positioning data from Glassnode. Martinez shared a UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) for DOGE partitioned by the all-time-high epoch, which bins supply by the last on-chain transaction price. This methodology highlights cost-basis clusters that typically function as support and resistance levels when those cohorts face drawdowns or approach break-even points. The histogram Martinez posted reveals a conspicuous bulge around $0.073, representing 28,278,554,566.513 DOGE or 18.66% of supply, indicating where nearly one-fifth of Dogecoin last changed hands.

More critically for the immediate price action, the URPD data shows a secondary local node centered near $0.17741885, representing 5,040,878,150.654 DOGE (3.33% of supply). The chart further exposes a heavy 36+ billion DOGE cluster across the $0.18–$0.21 range—a critical zone that price has already broken below, adding significant pressure to the downside. This pairing of technical threshold with on-chain vacuum underpins Martinez’s either-or framing, showing why the downside risk could be substantial if sellers force capitulation below the $0.18 level.

The convergence of technical and on-chain analysis creates what Martinez describes as a binary outcome for Dogecoin. The implication is straightforward: there’s a visible pocket of realized-price liquidity at roughly $0.18 that might catch price on first test, but should that support shelf fail, the next dense cohort sits far lower near seven cents. This creates a potential 61% decline from current levels if the $0.18 support breaks, versus a potential 90% rally to $0.33 if support holds and momentum carries DOGE to the upper channel boundary.

Martinez’s warning is unambiguous: “Dogecoin fate could hinge on $0.18. If it fails, $0.07 might be next.” At press time, DOGE traded at $0.173, already testing this critical threshold. The channel study delineates $0.18 as structural support on the daily timeframe, while the URPD shows why the downside air pocket could be deep if sellers force capitulation below that level. Conversely, a successful defense of $0.18 would align with Martinez’s mapped rebound toward the channel’s median near $0.26, with stretch potential to the upper boundary around $0.33 if bullish momentum persists.