Crypto Markets Turn Bearish as Bitcoin Slips Below $100K

Bitcoin’s recent decline below the $100,000 mark for the first time since May has triggered a significant shift in market sentiment across prediction platforms. According to Myriad Markets data, the odds of Bitcoin notching another all-time high before the year ends have jumped more than 21% in recent days, now sitting at 66% against the creation of a new record. This bearish shift comes as Bitcoin trades at $101,261 on Thursday, representing a nearly 20% decline from its recent peak above $126,000 last month.

The changing sentiment aligns with professional investors revising their targets. Analysts at Galaxy modified their year-end price target for Bitcoin, dropping it from $185,000 to $120,000 as the cryptocurrency enters what they describe as a new phase with more gradual growth. The technical picture remains challenging, with Wednesday’s analysis indicating that bearish exhaustion might be waning but not enough to support a strong breakout. For bulls looking to hedge their positions on Myriad, current odds offer approximately 33% returns if Bitcoin fails to achieve a new all-time high this year.

Potential catalysts that could reverse the current trend include resolution to government shutdown concerns or increased certainty around a December rate cut. However, with traditional market indices also sliding and record-breaking crypto liquidations continuing, the near-term outlook remains cautious among prediction market participants.

While most cryptocurrencies struggle amid the broader market decline, Zcash continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience. The privacy-focused token has outperformed nearly every other major cryptocurrency, grinding higher to eclipse $500 this week for the first time since 2018. This strength is reflected in Myriad Markets data, where a flash market on BNB Chain shows overwhelming confidence in Zcash maintaining its momentum.

Current odds heavily favor Zcash trading above $469 on Monday at noon, with ‘yes’ positions trading at 74%. This represents a dramatic 28% gain in just a few days of trading and completely reverses the previous sentiment from Monday evening, when ‘no’ positions traded around 72%. With Zcash currently changing hands around $533—approximately 12% above the $469 marker—some analysts see the token as an ‘alternative to Bitcoin,’ according to Galaxy analyst Will Reeves’ recent investor report.

The sustained strength in Zcash raises questions about whether the privacy token can maintain its outperformance in a weakening market environment. Prediction market participants currently believe it can, with the market closing on Sunday evening prior to resolution. The token’s ability to defy broader market trends suggests unique fundamental drivers that may insulate it from the bearish sentiment affecting other digital assets.

Despite consistent buying pressure from its parent platform, the PUMP token faces growing skepticism in prediction markets. Myriad Markets data shows 73% odds favoring PUMP’s market cap dropping to $1 billion rather than pumping to $3 billion. This bearish sentiment has increased approximately 21% since October 30 as the token follows broader markets lower, currently trading around a $1.3 billion market cap.

The negative outlook persists despite Pump.fun’s substantial buyback program. The platform has used millions in weekly revenue to buy back its own token, accumulating more than $166 million worth of PUMP according to its fees dashboard and offsetting more than 10% of the total circulating token supply. Nevertheless, PUMP trades about 33% below its debut market cap of $1.97 billion when it began trading shortly after its ICO.

For PUMP to reach the $3 billion market cap target that serves as the upper range for the Myriad market, the token would need to rise in price by 129% from current levels. The platform recently made it easier to on-ramp funds for buying or creating meme coins, but daily active trading addresses remain well below summer peaks. Outstanding airdrop details could provide a catalyst for frequent on-chain meme coin traders, potentially driving additional fees, revenues, and buybacks that might reverse the current bearish trajectory.