Cardano Plunges 27% as Whales Split, Support Fails

On-chain analytics from Santiment reveal a dramatic split among Cardano’s largest holders during the selloff. Wallets holding between 1 and 10 million ADA collectively offloaded approximately 40 million tokens over seven days, contributing to broader whale distribution that reportedly reached 350 million ADA. This substantial selling pressure from large holders has been a primary driver behind ADA’s breakdown below key support levels.

However, the market narrative isn’t uniformly bearish. While some whales were distributing their holdings, other large wallets accumulated between 140 and 200 million ADA during the same period. This conflicting behavior among major market participants has created what traders describe as a ‘split tape,’ fueling the choppy price action that has characterized ADA’s trading between $0.65 and $0.70. The divided stance suggests uncertainty about Cardano’s near-term direction even as the token approaches potentially oversold conditions.

Cardano’s derivatives markets reflect the cautious tone permeating the ecosystem. Open interest declined 2.12% to $669.9 million, indicating reduced speculative positioning as traders pulled back from leveraged bets. More tellingly, long liquidations totaling $1.13 million dramatically outpaced short liquidations of just $187,000, confirming that bullish traders bore the brunt of the recent price flush.

Technical indicators present a mixed picture on shorter timeframes. ADA is carving out a falling wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart, which typically precedes bullish reversals, but confirmation requires a decisive breakout above $0.74. The Relative Strength Index reading of 37 suggests ADA is approaching oversold territory, while the Chaikin Money Flow between 0.12 and 0.15 hints at returning spot inflows that have yet to overcome the supply pressure from distributing whales.

Technical analysts are flagging a ‘risk-first’ path for ADA in the near term. The loss of $0.66 support puts the $0.65 level in play, with failure there opening the door to a test of the $0.62-$0.60 range. A breakdown through these levels could see ADA testing $0.57, where multiple technical structures converge. In a deeper shakeout scenario, particularly if broader crypto weakness persists, ADA could probe the $0.53 level.

For any meaningful recovery to materialize, ADA must first reclaim $0.66 as support and then clear the significant resistance cluster between $0.74 and $0.80, where the 50-day exponential moving average presents additional overhead pressure. A breakthrough above this range would put bulls in position to target $0.86, with a psychological retest of $1.00 becoming feasible into the fourth quarter if risk appetite and capital flows improve. Several analysts maintain longer-term targets of $1.20-$1.60 on a confirmed breakout, though most caution that the market may experience further dips before any sustained rally given ongoing leverage resets and uneven liquidity conditions.

Beyond the immediate price action, several fundamental catalysts could influence ADA’s trajectory. The October 23 Grayscale ADA ETF decision window represents a significant regulatory milestone, while broader stablecoin and ETF net flows will determine overall market liquidity. The critical factor for altcoin recovery remains Bitcoin stabilization—a rotation back into assets like ADA typically follows BTC finding its footing, while renewed Bitcoin downside would likely extend Cardano’s consolidation near current lows.

Despite the price weakness, Cardano’s underlying ecosystem continues to build momentum. The community treasury has surpassed 1.6 billion ADA, equivalent to approximately $1 billion, funded through transaction fees and staking rewards. Governed via Project Catalyst, this substantial war chest supports tooling, DeFi development, and infrastructure projects without traditional venture capital overhang. Recent staking access expansions through platforms like eToro U.S. and ongoing initiatives including Midnight and Leios continue to broaden Cardano’s roadmap, even as its total value locked of $288 million lags behind larger blockchain competitors.