Bitcoin’s $97K Threshold: Key to Next Bull or Bear Phase

At the heart of the current market uncertainty lies a specific price zone: $96,956 to $97,000. According to prominent analyst Darkfost, this is not an arbitrary round number but the Realized Price of Bitcoin’s youngest Long-Term Holder (LTH) band. This on-chain metric represents the average cost basis for investors who have recently transitioned from short-term to long-term holding behavior, typically defined as holding BTC for over 155 days. When the Bitcoin price trades below this threshold, these recently committed holders sit at an unrealized loss, creating a precarious psychological state that increases the likelihood of panic selling and adds persistent downward pressure to the market.

Darkfost emphasizes that a decisive weekly close above $97,000 would fundamentally alter this dynamic. Reclaiming this level would immediately flip these young LTHs back into a comfortable profit position. This shift is critical because it restores their confidence and expectations of future gains, transforming them from potential sellers into likely accumulators. This behavioral change among a significant cohort of holders naturally brings more stability to the market, acting as a foundational step for any sustained recovery. However, Darkfost cautions that as long as Bitcoin remains below this band, the market stays structurally vulnerable, with the risk of further downside volatility remaining elevated.

On the technical front, Bitcoin’s weekly chart reveals a market attempting to find its footing after a sharp correction from above $115,000 down toward the mid-$80,000s. A key development has been a firm rebound from the 100-week moving average, which is acting as dynamic support in the $84,000–$86,000 region. This level has historically attracted long-term buyers, and the strong wick rejection on the weekly candle confirms renewed demand at what is perceived as a core value zone.

Despite this bounce, Bitcoin’s path higher is obstructed. The cryptocurrency is currently trading near $91,300, positioned just below the 50-week moving average, which now acts as formidable resistance. This key moving average is currently situated around $95,000 to $97,000—coinciding almost perfectly with the critical on-chain threshold identified by Darkfost. A clean and sustained reclaim of this 50-week MA would significantly improve the technical outlook, aligning price action with the positive on-chain signal of flipping the young LTH cohort into profit. Until that occurs, the trend on higher timeframes remains neutral-to-bearish.

Notably, the volume accompanying the recent bounce from the 100-week MA has been substantial, marking one of the strongest buying reactions seen since early 2025. This suggests that long-term holders and institutional buyers may be actively accumulating Bitcoin as it approaches these historically significant support levels. This influx of demand is a necessary counterbalance to the sell-side pressure, but it alone is insufficient to confirm a trend reversal.

The immediate future for Bitcoin hinges on its interaction with the $97,000 confluence zone. Successfully closing above this level would achieve a dual victory: flipping the psychology of the youngest long-term holders and reclaiming a major technical moving average. Darkfost notes, however, that this would only be the first step. The market would subsequently need stronger structural confirmation—such as rebuilding consistent demand and sustaining higher support levels—to validate a true bullish reversal capable of challenging previous all-time highs.

Conversely, failure to break above $97,000 leaves the market’s structure vulnerable. In this scenario, the risk of another leg down increases significantly. The most immediate support target would be a retest of the 100-week moving average around $86,000. A breach below that level could see Bitcoin probe deeper liquidity pockets, with $80,000 emerging as the next major area of interest. This bifurcated outlook underscores the high-stakes nature of the current price action. For traders and investors, the directive from analysts like Darkfost is clear: exercise caution until Bitcoin demonstrates a conclusive break above the $97,000 threshold, as volatility is expected to remain elevated while the market resolves this pivotal conflict.