Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Ending? ProCap CIO Predicts 2-Year Shift

For more than a decade, the rhythm of Bitcoin (BTC) has been dictated by a predictable four-year cycle. Investors and analysts have used this framework, anchored by halving events that reduce the rate of new BTC supply, to navigate bull runs, market capitulations, and major price shifts. This model provided a reliable, if not perfect, roadmap for anticipating market behavior. However, as detailed in an exclusive Cointelegraph interview with Jeff Park, partner and chief investment officer at ProCap BTC, that long-standing roadmap is now beginning to look outdated. Park challenges the core assumptions behind the four-year cycle, suggesting Bitcoin may no longer move as it used to, forcing the market to seek a new analytical framework.

The weakening predictive power of the halving event is a central pillar of this shift. Historically, these programmed supply shocks have been the primary catalyst for new bull markets, creating a clear, multi-year pattern. Analysts are now observing that this impact is diminishing, overshadowed by new macroeconomic and structural factors. This fundamental change means the old models, which served as a guide for over a decade, are becoming unreliable for forecasting Bitcoin’s future price movements, creating uncertainty and opportunity in equal measure.

Jeff Park of ProCap BTC identifies institutional capital as the primary force driving this cycle compression. The launch and subsequent massive inflows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have introduced a new, powerful source of demand that operates on a different timeline than the retail-driven patterns of the past. This institutional participation, according to Park’s analysis, is applying sustained pressure that may compress the historical four-year market cycle into a two-year timeframe. The constant, large-scale capital flows from these vehicles create a more dynamic and potentially faster-rotating market environment.

This institutionalization is compounded by shifting global liquidity trends that no longer align with the old four-year patterns. Macroeconomic factors, including central bank policies and capital flows into competing asset classes like artificial intelligence (AI), are introducing new variables that disrupt Bitcoin’s previously isolated rhythm. Park’s argument, as presented in the Cointelegraph interview, is that Bitcoin is being integrated into the broader financial system, and its cycles are consequently becoming synchronized with—and shortened by—the faster pace of institutional capital allocation and global macro shifts.

The potential transition to a two-year cycle has major implications for the market heading into 2026. If Park’s thesis is correct, the period between 2025 and 2026 would represent the first test of this new, accelerated framework. Investors who rigidly adhere to the old four-year model, perhaps anticipating a prolonged accumulation phase, could be caught off-guard by quicker-than-expected market turns. This necessitates a fundamental rethink of investment and trading strategies that have been built around a longer, more predictable timeline.

For analysts and firms like ProCap BTC, the mandate is clear: develop new frameworks. The traditional cycle models are becoming obsolete, requiring fresh analytical tools to understand where Bitcoin is headed next. This involves placing greater emphasis on ETF flow data, institutional on-chain metrics, and correlations with traditional liquidity indicators rather than relying solely on halving countdowns. The market is entering uncharted territory, and as Jeff Park’s analysis underscores, navigating it successfully will depend on abandoning outdated assumptions and adapting to a new, more dynamic reality for BTC.