Bitcoin’s 200-Day Trend Turns Bearish: Bull Market Over?

Crypto analyst Crypto₿irb, who commands an audience of 700,000 followers on X, delivered a stark assessment on Thursday, declaring from a technical standpoint that the Bitcoin bull market is over. His analysis extends beyond the simple breach of the 200-day trend, pointing to a confluence of five critical factors that collectively signal a persistent trend shift. These include the price percentage traveled, which measures the magnitude of Bitcoin’s movement, significant volume spikes indicating heightened trading activity, and above-average volatility that has characterized recent price action.

The technical case strengthens with Bitcoin’s sustained time spent below the 200-day trend line, a key psychological and technical level that many institutional and retail investors monitor closely. Additionally, Crypto₿irb highlighted worsened market breadth, suggesting broader weakness across the cryptocurrency ecosystem rather than isolated Bitcoin movement. This multi-factor analysis provides a more comprehensive picture than simply watching a single moving average cross, offering what the analyst considers confirmation of a fundamental shift in market dynamics.

The 200-day moving average represents one of the most widely watched long-term trend indicators in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. When Bitcoin price action consistently trades below this level, it typically signals weakening momentum and potential trend reversal. The current breach carries particular significance given the duration and conviction with which Bitcoin had previously maintained positions above this critical level during the bull market phase.

Historical context adds weight to the current technical setup. Previous instances where Bitcoin has broken and sustained below the 200-day moving average have often preceded extended periods of consolidation or decline. The current technical picture suggests that the market structure has fundamentally changed, with the 200-day trend now acting as resistance rather than support—a classic characteristic of bear market conditions according to traditional technical analysis principles.

Despite the compelling technical evidence presented by Crypto₿irb, the cryptocurrency analyst community remains divided on whether the bull market has definitively ended. The very nature of technical analysis allows for differing interpretations of the same data, with some analysts viewing the current price action as a healthy correction within a longer-term uptrend rather than a trend reversal.

The skepticism stems from several factors, including Bitcoin’s historical volatility and its tendency to produce false breakdowns before resuming upward trajectories. Some market observers point to fundamental factors such as institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions that could override short-term technical signals. This divergence in opinion reflects the inherent uncertainty in cryptocurrency markets and the challenge of making definitive calls based solely on technical indicators.

Crypto₿irb’s analysis extends beyond immediate price action, with the analyst predicting that 2026 will be characterized by declines for Bitcoin rather than growth. This longer-term projection suggests the analyst believes the current technical breakdown represents more than a short-term correction, instead marking the beginning of a sustained downtrend that could persist through the coming year.

The prediction carries significant implications for market participants, from long-term holders to active traders. If accurate, it would represent a fundamental shift from the growth-oriented environment that has characterized much of Bitcoin’s recent history. Market breadth deterioration, as cited by the analyst, suggests the potential for broader cryptocurrency market weakness, not just isolated Bitcoin pressure. This outlook challenges the prevailing narrative of continuous upward progression that has dominated much of the cryptocurrency discourse in recent years.

As the market digests these conflicting signals, investors face the challenge of navigating between technical warnings and fundamental optimism. The coming months will prove crucial in determining whether the bearish technical setup represents a temporary anomaly or the beginning of a new market phase, with the 200-day trend serving as a key battleground for bulls and bears alike.