Bitcoin’s 1,064-Day Cycle Suggests Bull Run May Be Over

The Bitcoin market is facing heightened anxiety as the premier cryptocurrency decisively lost the $100,000 psychological support zone, trading as low as $94,700 in recent sessions. This represents a dramatic 24.66% decline from the October peak of $126,198, marking one of the most significant corrections in the current market cycle. The breakdown has left short-term investors sitting on losses and has intensified speculation about whether the crypto bull run has reached its conclusion.

Market expert Ali Martinez has amplified these concerns with compelling historical analysis showing Bitcoin’s bull markets have consistently followed a 1,064-day pattern across multiple cycles. After hitting a cycle bottom of $166 in January 2015, Bitcoin completed a 1,064-day rally before registering its market top around $20,000 in December 2017. The pattern repeated in the subsequent cycle when Bitcoin surged from $3,120 in December 2018 to nearly $69,000 in November 2021—another exact 1,064-day period.

The current cycle appears to have followed this same timing pattern with mathematical precision. Following Bitcoin’s cycle low of $15,500 in November 2022, the asset reached its most recent all-time high of $126,198 exactly 1,064 days later. Martinez observes that this precise alignment with historical cycle durations suggests Bitcoin may have already topped, and the current correction could represent the early stages of a developing crypto winter.

Current market data underscores the severity of the selling pressure facing Bitcoin. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $94,650 following a 5.59% price decline in the last day alone. Over the past month, the cryptocurrency has registered a 14.61% decrease, reflecting sustained negative momentum and diminishing buyer interest at current price levels.

The breakdown below $100,000 represents more than just a technical level—it marks a psychological threshold that had previously served as strong support during the bull market ascent. The failure to hold this level has triggered a wave of negative sentiment across crypto markets, with many investors now questioning whether the structural bull market thesis remains intact. The speed and magnitude of the decline from all-time highs has particularly rattled market participants who had grown accustomed to the steady upward trajectory that characterized much of 2024.

While Martinez’s technical analysis presents a compelling bearish case based on historical patterns, several fundamental factors distinguish the current market environment from previous cycles. Institutional participation has reached unprecedented levels, highlighted by the massive inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs and the growing number of corporations adding Bitcoin to their treasury reserves. These structural changes have introduced a new class of long-term holders who may be less likely to panic-sell during corrections.

Regulatory clarity has also improved significantly across major jurisdictions including the United States, Europe, and Asia. Unlike previous cycles characterized by regulatory uncertainty and institutional hesitation, the current landscape features clearer frameworks that have strengthened Bitcoin’s credibility and accelerated mainstream adoption. The maturation of custody solutions, derivatives markets, and institutional infrastructure has created a more resilient ecosystem that could potentially alter historical cycle behavior.

These fundamental improvements suggest that while technical patterns provide valuable historical context, Bitcoin may not follow past cycle behavior as closely as before. The influx of institutional capital and regulatory normalization could either extend the current bull cycle or moderate the severity of any potential downturn. The market now faces a critical test of whether these structural improvements can override the powerful historical patterns that have governed Bitcoin’s price action for nearly a decade.