This summary text is fully AI-generated and may therefore contain errors or be incomplete.
Introduction
Long-term Bitcoin holders have sold over 1 million BTC since June, creating unprecedented selling pressure that explains Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to other risk assets throughout 2025. Despite this massive outflow from so-called ‘OG whales’—investors holding for seven years or more—the market has shown surprising resilience in absorbing these large sell-offs without the dramatic price collapses typical of previous cycles. However, analysts from firms including Capriole Investments and 10X Research warn that recent failures to reclaim critical support levels, combined with significant liquidation events, could drive Bitcoin prices down to $70,000.
Key Points
- OG Bitcoin whales have sold over 1 million BTC since June, with continuous selling since November 2024
- Market has unusually absorbed large sell-offs without drastic price declines seen in previous cycles
- Analysts warn Bitcoin could drop to $70,000 due to liquidations and failure to reclaim key support levels
The Great Whale Exodus: Unprecedented Selling Pressure
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, has identified a concerning trend that adds to the ongoing bearish sentiment among cryptocurrency investors. In a recent social media post, Edwards highlighted that ‘OG’ Bitcoin whales—those who have held their assets for over seven years—are actively cashing out their holdings at an unprecedented scale. The accompanying chart vividly illustrates this phenomenon through color-coded categories: orange for $100 million dumps and red for $500 million dumps, demonstrating the magnitude of liquidations by these long-term investors.
According to research from Compass Point analyst Ed Engel, the net sales from long-term Bitcoin holders have surpassed 1 million BTC since late June. This continuous selling by OG Bitcoin whales has been ongoing since November 2024, creating sustained downward pressure on the cryptocurrency’s price. The scale of this exodus represents a significant shift in market dynamics, as these historically steadfast investors have traditionally been among Bitcoin’s most committed holders, often accumulating through various market cycles rather than distributing their positions.
Market Resilience Meets Critical Support Failures
Despite the massive selling pressure from long-term holders, the Bitcoin market has exhibited unusual resilience throughout 2025. The market’s ability to absorb these large sell-offs without experiencing the drastic price declines typically seen in previous cycles represents a new behavioral pattern for the cryptocurrency ecosystem. This absorption capacity suggests either deeper market liquidity or new institutional buying interest that has helped cushion the impact of whale distributions.
However, recent market developments have tested this resilience. A significant liquidation of leveraged crypto positions on October 10 compounded the market’s struggles, with Bitcoin failing to regain critical support levels of $117,000 and subsequently $112,000. These technical failures have raised concerns among analysts about the sustainability of the market’s absorption capacity. Markus Thielen, founder and CEO of Singapore-based 10X Research, expressed his concerns in an interview with Yahoo Finance, noting that the inability to reclaim these levels suggests the market may indeed be in a bear cycle.
Analyst Warnings and the Path to $70,000
The analytical community has grown increasingly cautious about Bitcoin’s near-term prospects. 10X Research, which had previously predicted Bitcoin would fall to $100,000, now believes the market could be ‘a few weeks away’ from finding a buyable bottom. Thielen’s firm has warned of a potential correction that could see Bitcoin prices decline further, citing the recent strength of the US dollar as an additional challenge for cryptocurrency markets.
Thielen specifically mentioned an ‘air pocket’ below $93,000, indicating a lack of support that could lead to further liquidations and potentially drive prices down to the $70,000 range. This warning comes amid broader market concerns about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s price structure given the combination of whale selling, leveraged position unwinding, and macroeconomic headwinds. The convergence of these factors creates a challenging environment for Bitcoin to maintain its current valuation levels, let alone resume an upward trajectory in the near term.
📎 Read the original article on newsbtc.com