Bitcoin Tests $94K-$96K Demand Zone: Key Levels to Watch

According to technical analysis by Shayan, Bitcoin’s daily chart reveals a concerning picture as BTC remains positioned below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with each now acting as layered resistance above the market. The rejection from the 100-day moving average at $110K accelerated the decline and led to a clean sweep of the $99K-$100K liquidity cluster. This rejection coincided with a strong displacement candle earlier in the week, demonstrating clear seller dominance as the market transitioned into the lower portion of its multi-month distribution range.

The current test of the $94K-$96K demand block represents a critical technical moment for Bitcoin. This region aligns with previous high-volume trading behavior from earlier in the year, where long-term participants accumulated heavily. If the price stabilizes here and forms a higher low, this zone may once again serve as a structural base. However, should the market fail to defend this area, the next major support lies deeper around the $80K-$82K macro range, which forms the bottom boundary of the larger cycle structure.

The 4-hour chart structure highlights how Bitcoin completed a full bearish sequence following the break of the rising wedge pattern. After the breakdown, BTC returned to the underside of the trendline near $106K-$108K, where the retest was cleanly rejected. This rejection confirmed the transition from support to resistance, decisively shifting short-term momentum downward. The subsequent selloff drove the price directly into the $94K-$96K zone, a historically reactive demand region that has repeatedly initiated medium-term reversals in past cycles.

On-chain analysis by Shayan provides crucial insights into current investor positioning through the Realized Price distribution across UTXO age bands. Bitcoin has now fallen below both the 1-3 month and 3-6 month cohorts’ realized prices, meaning these two groups are sitting in aggregate loss. Their realized price levels have effectively transformed into realized supply, creating an overhead resistance band between roughly $105K and $110K where short-term holders are likely to sell into any recovery attempt to exit at breakeven.

Historically, this behavior from short-term holders acts as the first layer of resistance after sharp downward moves, creating significant headwinds for any potential recovery. In contrast, the 6-12 month cohort remains in profit, and their realized price situated around $94K-$96K aligns almost perfectly with the current market support. This group typically demonstrates more resilience, and their realized price often functions as a stabilizing zone during deep corrections.

The resulting on-chain structure positions Bitcoin between realized supply from short-term loss holders above and realized demand from mid-term holders below. It’s common in prior cycles for the market to interact with the 6-12 month cohort’s realized price during late-stage shakeouts, allowing long-term participants to absorb supply from capitulating short-term holders. A decisive break beneath this critical support, however, would signal a deeper capitulation phase, likely forcing a reset in market sentiment before any attempt at a new bullish leg.

The current market structure leaves Bitcoin at a critical inflection point that will determine the medium-term trajectory. Although an initial reaction has formed at the $94K-$96K demand zone, the technical structure remains heavy, and the asset has not yet produced the higher-timeframe signals required to confirm a sustainable recovery. For any short-term strength to develop, the market must first reclaim the $101K-$103K liquidity pocket, which currently acts as the nearest barrier preventing upward continuation.

The convergence of technical and on-chain factors creates a clear framework for monitoring Bitcoin’s next moves. The $94K-$96K zone represents both a technical demand block and the realized price level of the resilient 6-12 month holder cohort, making it a crucial support area. Meanwhile, the $105K-$110K range represents significant realized supply from short-term holders seeking breakeven exits, creating substantial resistance overhead. The market’s ability to hold current support levels will determine whether this becomes a larger accumulation phase or unfolds into a further correction toward the $80K-$82K macro range.