Bitcoin Recovery Stalls as Analysts Warn of Buyer Fatigue

The cryptocurrency market is grappling with the aftermath of what Valuermarket described as “the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history.” Bitcoin’s plunge from above $122,000 to lows near $101,000 triggered liquidations for over 1.6 million traders, erasing more than $19 billion in leveraged positions in a single day. The violent move was linked to comments by U.S. President Donald Trump, who threatened China with new tariffs, creating brief but significant global market turbulence.

By Sunday afternoon, market conditions showed some improvement as tensions between Washington and Beijing appeared to ease. Clarification that China’s new export measures were not full bans helped restore some confidence, allowing Bitcoin to jump from $112,000 to above $114,500. Ethereum also participated in the recovery, rallying 6% to nearly $4,100. However, the damage from the liquidation event continues to linger, with Bitcoin remaining 8.6% below its all-time high above $126,000 set on October 6 and showing a 7% loss over the past week despite daily trading volume climbing above $91 billion.

According to on-chain data shared by analyst JA Maartunn, Bitcoin is currently trading around $115,200 and facing significant technical challenges. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution metric, which tracks the price at which units of BTC were last spent, reveals a heavy supply zone between $117,500 and $120,000 acting as formidable resistance. This price range has become a critical barrier that Bitcoin must overcome to sustain any meaningful recovery.

On the support side, layered levels exist at $95,000-$97,500, $106,000, and a critical level at $111,200. The $110,900 mark, specifically the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, has been tested three times in the past six weeks. While this level has held so far, Maartunn warns that conviction is fading, and a break below could trigger further downward movement. The analyst notes that Bitcoin’s market structure appears fragile, exhibiting a failed weekly breakout pattern that mirrors behavior observed in November 2021, often signaling buyer fatigue.

Other technical analysts offer more tempered optimism. Rekt Capital observed that Bitcoin managed a daily close beyond $114,300 and was holding above its 21-week Exponential Moving Average, a historically positive signal. The analyst also noted that Bitcoin filled a key CME futures gap between $109,700 and $111,310 over the weekend, though a new gap has now opened between $115,690 and $116,865, creating another potential magnetic zone for price action.

The current market dynamics suggest Bitcoin faces significant headwinds in its recovery attempt. The patterns observed by analysts, particularly the similarity to November 2021 behavior, indicate potential buyer fatigue that could limit upward momentum. This is compounded by signs of early profit-taking from recent buyers, suggesting that market participants remain cautious despite the partial recovery from last week’s lows.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $115,195, marking a 3% gain in the last 24 hours. However, the struggle to reclaim key resistance levels combined with fading conviction at critical support levels paints a picture of a market at a crossroads. The combination of geopolitical sensitivity, technical resistance, and signs of profit-taking creates a complex environment where Bitcoin’s next major move could be determined by whether it can break through the $117,500-$120,000 resistance zone or if it succumbs to pressure below the $110,900 support level.