Bitcoin Reclaims $90K Amid Market Uncertainty

Recent data from Darkfost reveals a significant cooling in panic-driven selling activity across Bitcoin markets. The amount of BTC sent to exchanges at a loss has dropped dramatically to approximately 11,600 BTC, representing a substantial decline from the extreme capitulation spike of 67,000 BTC recorded on November 22nd. This sharp reduction in distressed selling suggests that the most intense phase of market fear may be subsiding, providing Bitcoin with a temporary foundation for stabilization.

The dramatic shift in exchange flows indicates that investors who were forced to sell at significant losses during the recent volatility have largely completed their exits. This development creates a more constructive environment for Bitcoin’s price action, as the absence of forced selling typically allows markets to find equilibrium. However, Darkfost data also shows that while the worst of the capitulation appears to be over, the market remains fragile and susceptible to renewed pressure if negative sentiment returns.

The behavior of short-term Bitcoin holders has emerged as a critical factor in determining the cryptocurrency’s near-term direction. According to Darkfost analysis, the amount of BTC in profit being sent to exchanges by short-term holders remains relatively low at around 9,500 BTC. However, a subtle but important shift has occurred as Bitcoin climbed back above $90,000, with some short-term holders beginning to test the market to secure small gains or reduce their exposure.

This delicate balance creates a tense environment where recent buyers must choose between waiting for a full return to break-even levels or selling now to minimize potential further losses. Short-term holders remain highly sensitive to small price movements, and their collective behavior often dictates short-term market direction. The relative calm observed in recent days compared to the violent capitulation seen earlier in the month suggests that panic has temporarily subsided, allowing the market to seek balance.

The critical test will come as Bitcoin approaches the realized price levels of short-term holders. If this cohort maintains positions and confidence increases, BTC could gain sufficient stability to push higher. Conversely, if short-term holders begin selling aggressively, renewed downside pressure could quickly return to Bitcoin markets. The next move from this investor group will likely set the tone for Bitcoin’s performance in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin’s technical picture shows an asset attempting recovery after reaching capitulation lows near $80,000, but the structural foundation remains fragile. While price has reclaimed the $90,000 area, momentum remains limited as BTC trades below both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. Both of these key technical indicators continue sloping downward, signaling sustained bearish pressure that has persisted since early October’s peak near $126,000.

Recent price action reflects a hesitant rebound characterized by upward wicks that show sellers defending every push toward the $92,000–$94,000 resistance zone. The tight body ranges in recent candles highlight ongoing market indecision, while significantly cooled volume compared to November’s panic-driven sell-off suggests that forced selling has eased but strong buy-side conviction remains absent. Bitcoin’s structural position below key resistance clusters formed during previous consolidation periods reinforces the current bearish trend.

For Bitcoin to invalidate the current corrective structure, bulls must reclaim these critical resistance zones. Until that occurs, every bounce risks becoming a lower high within a broader corrective pattern. On the downside, the $85,000–$87,000 region represents the most important support level. A breakdown below this zone could reopen the path toward deeper corrective targets. Bitcoin’s current stabilization attempt provides temporary relief, but sustained strength above $90,000 is essential to avoid renewed downside pressure and shift overall market sentiment.