Bitcoin Nears Key Breakout Level for New All-Time High

Bitcoin remains confined within a crucial trading range on the daily timeframe, with the 200-day moving average near $109K providing solid support and the 100-day moving average around $115K acting as immediate resistance. The recent rebound from the $108K demand zone has pushed the price back toward the upper boundary of this structure, with recovery candles showing a constructive tone. However, the $115K–$116K region represents the first key test for bullish continuation, as it overlaps with an institutional supply zone that has historically proven difficult to breach.

A decisive close above the $115K level could open the path for a retest of the $120K–$122K liquidity pocket, followed by a potential revisit of the $126K all-time high. Conversely, rejection from the 100-day moving average would likely prompt a pullback toward the $108K accumulation zone, which continues to serve as a high-liquidity demand base and the foundation of recent rebounds. This technical setup places Bitcoin at a critical inflection point where the next directional move could determine medium-term price trajectory.

The 4-hour chart structure highlights Bitcoin trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, following a sharp recovery from the $102K–$104K institutional demand zone. This pattern reflects a period of volatility compression, typically preceding a strong breakout in either direction. Currently, the asset is attempting to break above the upper trendline, which would confirm a bullish momentum shift and target the $120K–$122K liquidity zone.

However, failure to sustain above resistance and the formation of another lower high could invite renewed downside toward the $108K support for a potential base retest. Momentum remains constructive but fragile, suggesting the market is entering a critical decision phase where volatility expansion is imminent. This technical pattern underscores the heightened importance of the current price levels and the potential for significant movement in the near term.

The Realized Price of mid-term holders (3–6 month cohort) continues to act as a key market pivot, historically serving as both support and resistance during major turning points. This metric reflects the average acquisition cost of coins held by this group, offering valuable insight into prevailing sentiment. Bitcoin’s rebound from $102K has lifted price action just above the $109K Realized Price, putting mid-term holders back into slight profit.

This development typically reduces short-term selling pressure and signals improving conviction among market participants. The $114K region now emerges as a decisive threshold, with a confirmed breakout and hold above this level potentially reinforcing confidence among these holders and igniting a new bullish leg toward fresh all-time highs. Conversely, failure to hold above it could tilt sentiment back toward caution, exposing Bitcoin to deeper corrective moves within its current range.

The current technical and on-chain setup presents Bitcoin with a clear path forward, contingent on its ability to overcome critical resistance levels. The convergence of the 100-day moving average, institutional supply zone, and mid-term holder sentiment threshold around the $114K-$116K region creates a formidable barrier that must be decisively broken for bullish momentum to accelerate.

Should Bitcoin successfully reclaim and hold above this crucial level, the path toward retesting the $126K all-time high becomes increasingly plausible. However, failure to break through this resistance could see the cryptocurrency return to the $108K accumulation zone, where it has found consistent support during recent market fluctuations. With volatility compression evident in the symmetrical triangle pattern and mid-term holders positioned at a critical profit/loss threshold, Bitcoin appears poised for a significant directional move that could define its trajectory for weeks to come.