Bitcoin Nears $115K as US-China Trade Fears Ease

Bitcoin’s recent climb to just below $115,000 represents a notable recovery from the market turmoil triggered by President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on China. The October 10 flash crash, widely attributed to Trump’s tariff announcement, wiped out an unprecedented $19 billion worth of open interest in crypto markets and sent spot prices tumbling. According to crypto price aggregator CoinGecko, Bitcoin has gained 1.2% in the past day and 3.5% compared to this time last week, signaling renewed investor confidence as trade tensions between the United States and China show signs of easing.

The improvement in market sentiment coincides with growing optimism surrounding Trump’s scheduled meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday. Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick noted that the Bitcoin-gold ratio has now improved to sit just above the level it maintained before the late October tariff threat significantly impacted Bitcoin prices. However, Kendrick emphasized that he will be watching for this ratio to break back above 30 to signal a definitive end to trade war fears, indicating that underlying market anxiety persists despite the recent price recovery.

The movement of funds between gold and Bitcoin ETFs has emerged as a critical indicator of shifting market sentiment. Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick highlighted that during the back half of last week, approximately $2 billion worth of funds exited gold ETFs, creating a potential opportunity for Bitcoin to capture some of these flows. In a note shared with Decrypt, Kendrick stated that confirmation of a more positive Bitcoin backdrop would require Bitcoin ETFs to attract about half of that amount—roughly $1 billion—during the Monday through Wednesday period this week.

Kendrick’s analysis reveals that Bitcoin ETF inflows have been lagging behind gold ETFs, suggesting that some catch-up is due if digital assets are to regain their competitive position against traditional safe havens. The substantial outflow from gold ETFs represents a potential inflection point for Bitcoin, which has struggled to match gold’s impressive performance throughout 2025. The fact that analysts are closely monitoring these ETF flow patterns underscores their importance as real-time indicators of institutional and retail investor preferences in the evolving landscape of alternative assets.

Despite Bitcoin’s recent recovery, gold continues to demonstrate remarkable strength, having gained roughly 54% since the start of the year compared to Bitcoin’s 23% climb since January. This significant performance gap highlights gold’s sustained appeal amid global economic uncertainty and trade tensions. The gains that Bitcoin has witnessed in the past week are, in part, attributable to gold backing off its recently set all-time high above $4,300 per troy ounce, creating space for digital assets to regain some momentum.

Market participants remain cautious about Bitcoin’s ability to close the performance gap with gold. Users on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt parent company Dastan, still assign a 65% probability that gold will outperform Bitcoin in 2025. Although this probability has dropped by 4.5% in the past day, it remains far from flipping in Bitcoin’s favor. This persistent market skepticism reflects ongoing concerns about trade talks potentially souring and the broader macroeconomic environment, which could continue to favor traditional safe havens over digital alternatives.

The contrasting performance between gold and Bitcoin throughout 2025 underscores the different risk profiles and investor bases for these assets. While both are considered alternative investments and potential hedges against economic uncertainty, gold’s established history and perceived stability have allowed it to capture significant inflows during periods of heightened trade tensions. Bitcoin’s recent recovery, while encouraging, must be viewed in the context of this broader competitive dynamic, where traditional assets continue to command substantial investor confidence despite the growing acceptance of digital alternatives.