Bitcoin Hits $126K ATH, On-Chain Data Reveals Key Support Levels

Bitcoin’s price action throughout 2025 has been nothing short of impressive, with the flagship cryptocurrency ascending from approximately $93,300 in early January to achieve a new all-time high of $126,000 this month. Despite encountering several resets along its upward trajectory, Bitcoin consistently established new highs, reflecting the substantial confidence maintained by its long-term investor base. This sustained momentum demonstrated the digital asset’s resilience and the conviction of those holding through market fluctuations.

The recent October correction, however, has introduced significant uncertainty into the market landscape. This pullback has shaken investor confidence and prompted serious questions about whether Bitcoin’s bull cycle can maintain its momentum or if the long-feared bear market might be imminent. The current price action, standing at approximately $11,890 with minimal movement in the past 24 hours, reflects this market indecision and the tension between bullish and bearish perspectives.

In an October 24 analysis on the X platform, pseudonymous on-chain analyst Arch Physicist provided crucial insights that could offer encouragement to Bitcoin market participants. The analyst’s examination centered on the Value Coin-Days Destroyed (VCDD) to Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, a sophisticated on-chain tool that measures the volume of coins moving on the blockchain in relation to potential profits based on their movements. This metric serves as a powerful indicator for identifying price zones that can function as either support or resistance levels.

Arch Physicist identified four critical readings from this metric, each with distinct functions in market analysis. The ‘Gamma + Epsilon’ level, currently valued around $147,937, serves to identify structural highs formed due to Long-Term Holder (LTH) profit-taking activities. Meanwhile, the ‘Delta + Epsilon’ level, approximately $92,902, represents support formed by Short-Term Holder (STH) entry opportunities. The Epsilon component itself functions to identify potential price floors, providing crucial markers for both bullish and bearish scenarios.

Arch Physicist emphasized that these metric functions align consistently with Bitcoin’s historical price behavior. The analyst noted that during previous bull runs, Bitcoin’s price has typically broken above the structural high (Gamma + Epsilon) and reached all-time highs near Beta levels. Conversely, during bear markets, Bitcoin has historically established all-time lows very close to Epsilon levels, demonstrating the metric’s reliability across different market cycles.

In the current cycle, Bitcoin’s price has consistently traded within the support zones established by its long-term holders, as well as those defined by short-term holder activity. However, the recent price movement shows a trend toward the lower support zones, creating a critical juncture for market direction. A breach of these lower support levels could potentially signal the beginning of a bear market phase, while sustained integrity of the upper support might indicate that the bull run has not yet fully commenced.

The ongoing tension between these technical levels and current price action creates a fascinating dynamic for market observers. The fact that Bitcoin continues to trade within long-term holder support zones, despite recent corrections, suggests underlying strength in the market structure. This positioning, combined with the historical precedent of breaking above structural highs during genuine bull runs, provides context for understanding whether current volatility represents a temporary setback or a more significant trend reversal.