Bitcoin Faces 30% Drop Risk Despite Weekend Rebound

Cryptocurrency markets face renewed uncertainty as prominent analyst Capo delivers a stark warning that Bitcoin’s price crash is far from over. In his latest market update, Capo predicted that Bitcoin could still drop another 30% from current levels, noting that the flagship crypto remains above $100,000 – far from the $60,000 to $70,000 range that would align with a complete market correction. This bearish outlook comes despite Bitcoin’s recent rebound from last Friday’s lows, with Capo asserting that ‘until then, the downside potential remains significant.’

The analyst’s grim forecast follows last Friday’s massive crypto market crash, when Bitcoin fell to as low as $104,000 following former President Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on China. The event wiped out $19 billion from the crypto market, marking the largest liquidation event ever recorded. Capo characterized this development as likely being a ‘pre-Black Swan event’ and ‘the first phase of something larger,’ suggesting more severe market turbulence may lie ahead.

Capo noted that while altcoins have already experienced historic capitulation, several major coins still haven’t fully flushed. He maintained that the wicks should eventually be filled and that lower levels may still be ahead for both Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Despite acknowledging the possibility of brief consolidation over the weekend, the analyst warned that more downside should follow this week as global markets reopen.

Contrary to Capo’s bearish outlook, Bitcoin demonstrated resilience over the weekend, bouncing to reach as high as $116,000 as long positions accumulated again following the massive wipeout. This recovery was partly fueled by Trump’s statement on Sunday, which allayed fears of a full-blown trade war with China and provided temporary relief to nervous investors.

Technical analyst The King Fisher highlighted upside liquidity of up to $118,000, noting that ‘weekends are for BTC range liquidations fishing.’ This analysis suggested that the weekend rebound might represent strategic positioning rather than a fundamental shift in market sentiment. The mixed signals from different analysts reflect the ongoing uncertainty in crypto markets as traders attempt to navigate conflicting technical indicators and macroeconomic developments.

According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was trading at around $115,100 at the time of writing, up over 3% in the last 24 hours. However, this recovery remains fragile as the market continues to digest the implications of Trump’s tariff announcement and its potential impact on global risk assets.

Not all analysts share Capo’s pessimistic outlook. Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto assured market participants that the bull market is not yet over, indicating more upside potential for Bitcoin. The analyst explained that the bull market starts when BTC reclaims its 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and that the bear market only begins when it loses this critical technical level.

Supporting Titan of Crypto’s thesis, Bitcoin achieved a weekly candle close above $112,000, providing technical confirmation of the bull market’s persistence. This development suggests that despite last week’s volatility, the underlying bullish structure may remain intact for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Adding to the bullish perspective, crypto analyst Jelle noted that Bitcoin has returned to the $115,000 resistance area. He remarked that a successful reclaim of this level could send the flagship crypto to new all-time highs beyond its previous peak of $126,000. Before last week’s crash, BTC had hit a new all-time high above $126,000, though the subsequent decline erased its October gains and tested investor confidence.

The cryptocurrency market finds itself at a critical juncture, with analysts deeply divided on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. The stark contrast between Capo’s prediction of a 30% decline to the $60,000-$70,000 range and other analysts’ expectations of new all-time highs reflects the extreme uncertainty gripping digital asset markets.

Traders should monitor several key technical levels in the coming days. The $115,000 resistance level identified by Jelle represents a crucial battleground, with a successful break above potentially triggering renewed bullish momentum. Conversely, failure to hold current levels could validate Capo’s bearish thesis and open the door to further declines.

As global markets reopen this week, the crypto sector faces heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic developments, particularly regarding trade policy and risk appetite. The division among prominent analysts underscores the need for cautious positioning and careful risk management as Bitcoin navigates one of its most volatile periods in recent memory.