Bitcoin Eyes $100K as Analysts Predict Year-End Rally

BTIG analyst Jonathan Krinsky has expressed confidence that Bitcoin is positioned for a continued ‘reflex rally’ that could propel the cryptocurrency toward the psychologically significant $100,000 mark in the short term. This bullish outlook comes as Bitcoin has recently stabilized above the $90,000 threshold, sparking renewed optimism among investors who see the current price action as a potential springboard for further gains. Krinsky’s analysis draws strength from historical patterns that indicate Bitcoin typically reaches a seasonal bottom around November 26, then gains momentum as the year comes to a close.

The Thanksgiving week often aligns with momentum resets for digital assets, according to BTIG’s analysis, reinforcing expectations for a tactical upward movement into December. Market analyst Rekt Capital has added technical validation to this optimistic outlook, noting that if Bitcoin can reclaim its position above the $94,180 mark, it would flip the 2025 yearly candle into a green one, substantiating theories of a potential rally for the leading cryptocurrency in the waning days of the year. For Bitcoin to build on its current prospects and approach the Macro downtrend line, Rekt Capital emphasized that it would require a weekly close above approximately $93,500, turning that level into support similar to patterns observed in previous green cycles.

Beyond direct Bitcoin exposure, BTIG has identified MicroStrategy (MSTR) as a compelling mean reversion trade candidate. The firm maintains a buy rating on the corporate Bitcoin holder with a price target set at $630, suggesting significant upside potential from current levels. MicroStrategy’s unique position as a publicly-traded company with substantial Bitcoin holdings makes it a leveraged play on cryptocurrency appreciation, attracting investors who prefer traditional equity exposure to direct digital asset ownership.

The mean reversion thesis for MicroStrategy aligns with the broader seasonal patterns observed in Bitcoin markets, as the company’s valuation tends to correlate strongly with Bitcoin price movements. BTIG’s analysis suggests that as Bitcoin gains momentum into year-end, MicroStrategy stands to benefit disproportionately given its substantial cryptocurrency treasury and the market’s tendency to reward companies with significant Bitcoin exposure during bullish phases for the digital asset.

Not all analysts share the uniformly optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Mike McGlone, an analyst at Bloomberg, has voiced concerns on social media regarding Bitcoin’s price trajectory for the coming days, suggesting that a typical reversion to around $50,000 might be in the cards. McGlone’s caution stems from Bitcoin’s close correlation with the S&P 500 (SPX), which currently shows 120-day volatility at its lowest year-end level since 2017, indicating potential headwinds for both traditional equities and correlated digital assets.

The unusually low volatility in the S&P 500 presents a contrasting signal to the bullish seasonal patterns highlighted by BTIG and other optimistic analysts. McGlone’s warning underscores the persistent correlation between traditional risk assets and cryptocurrencies, suggesting that any significant downturn in equity markets could trigger a proportional pullback in Bitcoin despite favorable seasonal factors. This divergence in analyst perspectives highlights the ongoing tension between Bitcoin’s unique market dynamics and its continued sensitivity to broader financial market conditions.