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Introduction
Bitcoin has staged a dramatic recovery from Wednesday’s intraday low of $99,600 to trade around $103,400, sparking intense debate among analysts about whether this represents a sustainable turnaround or merely a technical bounce. With 28.1% of Bitcoin supply now held at a loss—a level that historically preceded major price rallies—the market faces conflicting signals as Galaxy Digital’s head of research significantly lowers his year-end price target from $185,000 to $120,000.
Key Points
- 28.1% of Bitcoin supply is currently held at a loss, a level that historically preceded major price rallies including 70% and 125% surges in 2024-2025
- Galaxy Digital's research head lowered Bitcoin's year-end price target from $185,000 to $120,000 following the recent market downturn
- Analysts identify $100,000 as a potential accumulation zone for mid-term recovery, but warn the bounce could extend lower to $88,000-$93,000 if bearish trends persist
The Technical Bounce and Historical Precedents
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin’s recent upward swing saw the cryptocurrency bounce from Wednesday’s intraday low of $99,600 to trade around $103,400, marking a tentative recovery following a bruising sell-off that has pushed Bitcoin roughly 25% below its October peak. The current market conditions present traders with a critical question: is this the beginning of a sustainable rebound or merely a temporary respite before further declines? CryptoQuant data reveals that 28.1% of Bitcoin supply is now held at a loss, a metric that has historically signaled potential price reversals.
Historical patterns provide compelling context for the current situation. A similar spike in supply losses to 27% in April 2025 preceded a 70% rally in Bitcoin, while back in September 2024, comparable conditions kicked off a massive 125% surge. On-chain analyst Willy Woo added to the optimistic narrative, writing in a tweet on Wednesday that “Liquidity behind Bitcoin is starting to make a recovery,” suggesting that price confirmation could follow within two weeks.
Divided Analyst Perspectives on Market Recovery
Despite the encouraging historical parallels, market experts remain sharply divided on the sustainability of the current bounce. Shawn Young, Chief Analyst at MEXC Research, told Decrypt that “What we are looking at right now is a technically driven rebound, being supported by spot inflows and leveraged short-covering. So it’s not necessarily a resurgence of long-term conviction.” Young emphasized that the market needs to see consistent on-chain accumulation by long-term holders and stabilized funding rates for this bounce to become an enduring bottom.
Jiehan Chen, Operations Onboarding Lead Analyst at Schroders, offered a more nuanced perspective, telling Decrypt that for bulls, the $100,000 zone is forming as a potential accumulation range that could fuel a mid-term recovery into 2026. However, Chen stressed that the weekly candlestick close needs to hold above $103,000 to validate this outlook. For bears, the current uptick represents a standard bear market bounce within a cooling cycle, with experts previously telling Decrypt that if the trend persists, the dip buying zone could extend from $93,000 to $88,000.
Revised Price Targets and Macro Catalysts
The recent market downturn has prompted significant reassessments of Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Alex Thorn, head of research at crypto investment and infrastructure company Galaxy Digital, has lowered his end-of-year target for Bitcoin from $185,000 to $120,000, signaling tempered expectations following the recent selloff. This substantial revision reflects the challenging market conditions and suggests that even bullish analysts are adjusting their forecasts in response to current price action.
The deciding factor that could dramatically alter this outlook remains the broader macroeconomic backdrop. Chen expects a period of choppiness ahead unless a positive catalyst, such as an end to the government shutdown, changes the underlying economic outlook. As Young cautioned Decrypt, “The recent relief bounce could come across as active dip-buying, but it is not yet eligible to be considered a full-scale recovery signal.” The market now watches for clearer signals from long-term holder behavior and funding rate stabilization to determine whether the current bounce represents a genuine recovery or merely a temporary reprieve in an ongoing correction.
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