Bitcoin at $96K: 99% of Recent Buyers Face Losses

The current Bitcoin price of $96,000 has created a painful scenario for the vast majority of recent entrants to the market. According to Glassnode’s analysis, a staggering 99% of investors who began ‘stacking sats’ since late spring now find themselves in the red. This 155-day accumulation period, which many had hoped would mark the beginning of a sustained bull run, has instead become a lesson in market timing and volatility. The psychological impact of watching investments turn negative so quickly has tested the conviction of even the most ardent Bitcoin believers, creating what analysts describe as a ‘honeymoon on pause’ for new market participants.

Bloomberg host Joe Weisenthal captured the prevailing sentiment when he noted that ‘Bitcoin has been down for 12 straight days,’ highlighting the relentless selling pressure that has characterized recent trading sessions. This extended downturn has left traders and market commentators sifting through the wreckage for any signs of reversal or stabilization. The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional tech indices, particularly the Nasdaq, has further complicated the recovery narrative, with market makers at Wintermute pointing to technology sector weakness as an anchor dragging down the ‘digital gold’ thesis that typically supports Bitcoin during periods of traditional market stress.

While retail investors grapple with losses, institutional players are sending strong signals of continued confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley revealed that a ‘$1 trillion AUM bank’ recently invited his team to brief financial advisors on Bitcoin, turning what many perceive as a market slowdown into an educational acceleration. This institutional curiosity reflects a growing recognition that price volatility may present strategic entry points rather than fundamental weaknesses in the Bitcoin narrative.

The institutional embrace extends beyond mere education to substantial capital allocation. Harvard University has positioned its Bitcoin IBIT exposure as its largest ETF holding, according to recent filings, demonstrating how major educational endowments are tiptoeing into spot Bitcoin through regulated vehicles. Even more significantly, the UAE’s sovereign wealth fund, Al Warda, has increased its Bitcoin ETF exposure by 230% since June 2025, now holding 7.9 million shares valued at $517 million. These moves by sophisticated institutional investors suggest that current price levels may represent attractive accumulation opportunities for those with longer time horizons and deeper pockets.

The persistent downward pressure on Bitcoin prices appears to have a clear source, according to on-chain analyst Checkmate. Contrary to popular theories about market manipulation or derivatives activity driving the sell-off, the primary selling pressure is coming directly from existing Bitcoin holders. ‘This has been the case the entire cycle so far,’ Checkmate explained. ‘Took a while for folks to recognise it, but sell-side by existing holders has been the primary reason for these maddeningly long periods of chopsolidation.’

This revelation reframes the current market dynamic, suggesting that long-term HODLers taking profits rather than speculative traders or manipulative forces are responsible for the extended consolidation period. The pattern indicates that even as new buyers enter the market, established holders are using price strength to lighten positions, creating a supply overhang that has prevented sustained rallies. This ‘chopsolidation’ – a market condition characterized by choppy, sideways trading within a consolidation pattern – has tested the patience of traders accustomed to Bitcoin’s historical volatility patterns.

Despite the challenging price environment, Bitcoin’s cultural and narrative significance continues to grow, demonstrating that market value and cultural relevance don’t always move in lockstep. The cryptocurrency recently made a cameo appearance in a New Yorker cartoon, a milestone that Human Rights Foundation’s Alex Gladstein highlighted in response to Weisenthal’s bearish observation. ‘The New Yorker cartoon today is about Bitcoin replacing fiat so we’re up,’ Gladstein noted, emphasizing that narrative victories sometimes matter as much as price movements in the long-term adoption curve.

This cultural penetration occurs alongside continued institutional education and adoption, creating a complex tapestry where short-term price pain coexists with long-term structural growth. The simultaneous presence of widespread investor losses and accelerating institutional interest highlights Bitcoin’s evolving market maturity, where different participant categories operate on different timeframes and with different strategic objectives. As the market navigates this period of ‘chopsolidation,’ the underlying narrative strength – evidenced by both cultural milestones and institutional validation – suggests that current price weakness may represent a temporary setup for the next significant market move rather than a fundamental breakdown in Bitcoin’s value proposition.