Bitcoin’s Unprecedented Decline Without Crisis in 2025

Bitcoin is on track for its fourth annual decline in history, but the 2025 downturn marks a significant departure from past patterns. Unlike previous crashes, which were triggered by major scandals or industry meltdowns, this drop appears driven by different, more fundamental market forces. This shift suggests the cryptocurrency is being evaluated through a new lens, increasingly alongside traditional financial assets like equities and Treasury yields, as highlighted in a recent Bloomberg report.

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10-Year Treasury Yield: 60+ Years of Trends & Economic Impact

For over six decades, the 10-year Treasury yield has stood as a foundational gauge of U.S. economic health and investor sentiment. Tracing its path from 1962 reveals a dramatic narrative of peaks and troughs, intimately tied to the Federal Reserve’s policy battles against inflation and its efforts to stimulate growth. This long-term perspective illuminates how this critical interest rate interacts with the Fed Funds Rate, inflation, and the S&P 500, serving as a mirror to the nation’s financial cycles.

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US Stocks Edge Up as Rate Cut Hopes Fade

US stock futures are climbing cautiously as investors confront the reality that interest rate reductions may be delayed. The steady 10-year Treasury yield at 4.15% indicates persistent borrowing costs affecting both consumers and corporations. This financial environment continues to shape critical economic decisions across sectors, with market participants carefully monitoring economic indicators as they reassess expectations for monetary policy easing.

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US Stocks Fall as Treasury Yields, Mortgage Rates Climb

US stock futures declined Friday as investors confronted persistent Treasury yields and rising mortgage rates. The 30-year home loan rate hit 6.24%, increasing pressure on the housing sector. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield remained elevated above 4.1%, signaling higher borrowing costs across the economy and creating headwinds for economic growth and corporate earnings.

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US Stocks Overvalued: P/E10 Signals Caution

US stock indexes remain significantly overvalued according to the latest market valuation analysis, suggesting investors should temper their return expectations. The assessment focuses on the P/E10 ratio and its relationship with inflation and Treasury yields. This October 2025 update continues a long-standing trend of cautionary market readings that has characterized multiple monthly assessments.

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XRP Leverage Rebuilds as Beta to Bitcoin Signals Volatility

XRP enters the final week of October with rebuilt leverage and a working beta relationship to Bitcoin that could trigger significant price movements. With open interest near $4.4 billion and funding rates normalizing, the setup favors potential short squeezes as market conditions stabilize. Key macroeconomic indicators and Federal Reserve policy decisions will determine whether XRP’s beta to Bitcoin expands or contracts in the coming days.

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10-Year Treasury Yield Trends Since 1962

The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations over the past six decades, reaching a peak of 15.68% in 1981. This analysis examines its historical relationship with key economic indicators including the Fed Funds Rate, inflation, and stock market performance, providing crucial context for understanding current bond market dynamics and their implications for investors and policymakers navigating today’s economic landscape.

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US Stocks Dip as Trump’s Canada Tariff Threat Spooks Markets

The US stock market experienced a pullback on July 11, with major indices slipping from recent record highs. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Dow Jones dropped 257 points (0.6%), and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.2%. The downturn was triggered by President Trump’s renewed tariff threats against Canada, which heightened trade tensions. Additionally, rising bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury note jumping to 4.40%, added pressure to equities. This marks a potential first weekly loss in three weeks for the major indexes as investors remain cautious about escalating trade disputes and their impact on market stability.

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Bitcoin Surges Past $110K as US Jobs Data Boosts Crypto

The crypto market remained relatively calm as Bitcoin edged up 0.4% to $109,800 and Ethereum hovered near $2,590, with most top 100 coins posting single-digit moves. Bonk, a Solana-based meme coin, stood out with a 10% spike. Traditional markets rallied after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data (147K new jobs vs 110K forecast), pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.1%. Technical indicators for Bitcoin show a delicate balance – RSI at 60 suggests bullish momentum, while ADX at 12 indicates consolidation. Ethereum faces a ‘death cross’ but shows buying interest. Both assets show potential for volatility expansion as the Squeeze Momentum Indicator signals compression. Key levels to watch include $108K support for BTC and $2.5K for ETH.

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