Fundstrat’s 2026 Crypto Outlook: Near-Term Caution vs. Long-Term Bull Case

A leaked internal client note from Fundstrat Global Advisors has ignited market debate, revealing a stark contrast between the firm’s near-term caution and its long-term bullish stance. While Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee has been publicly championing Ethereum’s severe undervaluation, a research note from digital asset strategy head Sean Farrell outlines a base case for a “meaningful drawdown” in the first half of 2026. This apparent conflict underscores the nuanced, multi-strategy approach within a single research house, where different analysts serve distinct investor profiles and time horizons.

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Crypto Market Pulls Back Amid Extreme Fear, Tom Lee Sees Long-Term Opportunity

The global cryptocurrency market has retreated to $3.23 trillion as investor sentiment plunged to extreme fear levels, with Bitcoin trading around $95,400 and Ethereum near $3,155. Despite the broad pullback that has seen Bitcoin fall 20% and Ethereum drop over 30% from recent peaks, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee maintains his bullish long-term outlook, suggesting current weakness represents a potential buying opportunity rather than a fundamental breakdown.

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AB Token Crashes 99% on Binance Alpha, Reveals Market Risks

AB Token experienced a catastrophic 99% flash crash on Binance Alpha, plummeting from $0.0083 to near-zero in just two minutes before staging a partial recovery that still left the token down over 80% for the day. The dramatic collapse, which saw trading volume surge past $5 million against thin liquidity pools of just $2.17 million, revealed critical vulnerabilities in cryptocurrency market structure and highlighted the dangers of concentrated token ownership.

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Tom Lee Predicts Bitcoin $250K, Ethereum $12K by Year-End

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee ignited Korea Blockchain Week 2025 with one of the year’s most ambitious cryptocurrency forecasts, projecting Bitcoin could surge to $250,000 and Ethereum to $12,000 by year-end. His bullish case rests on a combination of favorable macroeconomic shifts, growing institutional adoption, and Ethereum’s unique positioning as a ‘truly neutral chain’ capable of sustaining a decade-plus ‘super cycle.’ While skeptics point to fee structures and competitive threats, Lee’s predictions highlight the increasingly mainstream narrative surrounding digital assets.

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Bitcoin Drops as US Treasury Rules Out New Purchases

Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline following the US Treasury’s announcement that it would not purchase additional Bitcoin for its reserve, opting instead to rely on confiscated assets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks reversed earlier market optimism, leading to a sell-off that erased intraday gains and triggered $450 million in liquidations. The Treasury’s stance removes a predictable buyer from the market, potentially increasing price volatility. Meanwhile, Bessent linked balance-sheet plans to rising tariff revenues, which could fund other asset strategies. The news comes amid broader economic signals, including a 3.3% year-on-year rise in the Producer Price Index.

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Crypto Funds Hit Record $4.4B Inflows, AUM Reaches $220B

Digital asset funds saw unprecedented inflows of $4.4 billion last week, surpassing the previous record of $4.27 billion set after the 2024 US elections. This marks the 14th consecutive week of positive flows, bringing year-to-date inflows to $27 billion and total AUM to $220 billion. Ethereum emerged as the standout performer, attracting $2.12 billion, while Bitcoin saw $2.2 billion in inflows. The US market drove the surge with $4.3 billion, highlighting growing institutional confidence in crypto ETFs. Trading activity also spiked, with exchange-traded product turnover hitting $39 billion, indicating improved liquidity and tighter bid-ask spreads.

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R2 Stablecoin Testnet Hits 10M Transactions in 3 Weeks

The R2 stablecoin protocol has rapidly gained traction, with its testnet recording over 200,000 participants and 10 million transactions in less than three weeks. Unlike many DeFi projects, R2USD is backed by tangible assets, including US government bonds and rental income, enhancing its stability and appeal. The project has also partnered with Ondo Finance, using its US Treasury token (OUSG) as collateral, further solidifying its real-world asset (RWA) foundation. Additionally, R2 introduces a unique incentive system rewarding both on-chain activity and community engagement, with plans to expand to multiple blockchains. Despite regulatory uncertainties, R2’s grassroots growth and asset-backed model position it as a promising player in the stablecoin space.

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SEC Delays XRP, Dogecoin ETF Decisions to June

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has deferred its decision on two cryptocurrency-related ETF applications—one tracking XRP (filed by Franklin Templeton) and another for Dogecoin (proposed by Bitwise). The review periods have been extended to June 15 and June 17, respectively, with the SEC citing the need for additional time to evaluate the proposals. Industry experts, including ETF analyst James Seyffart, anticipate further delays, projecting final decisions by mid-October for the XRP ETF. The SEC also postponed other crypto ETFs, including Solana and Hedera funds, shortly after approving three ProShares futures ETFs, now set to launch on May 14. The delays reflect ongoing regulatory caution toward crypto-based financial products.

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Australia Focuses on Crypto Regulation Amid Concerns Over Innovation and Growth

The Australian government is prioritizing the regulation of digital assets over establishing a strategic crypto reserve, aiming for increased transparency and security in the sector. While public interest in cryptocurrencies is rising, stricter regulations may hinder innovation and competitiveness. The number of Bitcoin ATMs in Australia is growing, with plans for enhanced monitoring to prevent misuse, highlighting the ongoing tension between regulation and the desire for accessible digital asset transactions.

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Russian Nationals Arrested in Thailand for Global Ransomware Attacks

Four Russian nationals were arrested in Phuket for their involvement in global ransomware attacks using Phobos, targeting 17 Swiss companies and nearly 1,000 victims, resulting in losses of around $16 million in Bitcoin. The operation was a collaborative effort involving law enforcement from 14 countries, including the US and UK. In response to rising cyber threats, Thailand is considering regulatory changes to enhance cybersecurity and explore the legalization of online gambling to boost economic growth.

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PumpFun Co-Founder Denies Token Launch Amid Legal Challenges and Speculation

PumpFun co-founder Alon Cohen has dismissed rumors of a token launch using a Dutch auction model in collaboration with centralized exchanges, urging the community to rely on official statements. The platform is currently facing legal challenges over allegations of facilitating unregistered securities trading through speculative meme tokens, raising doubts about its legitimacy and future. Despite the potential benefits of the Dutch auction model, skepticism remains regarding its effectiveness for the broader community, given past token distribution practices.

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Pi Network Progresses Towards Open Network Launch Amid KYC Challenges

Pi Network aims to launch its Open Network once 15 million users complete KYC verification, with over 9 million already migrated. Despite its popularity, especially in Asia, users face verification challenges, prompting the team to offer solutions for those struggling with the process. The project continues to grow, boasting a significant social media following that surpasses established crypto entities.

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