Bernstein: Bitcoin Downturn Not a Bear Market, $150K Target Intact

Despite Bitcoin’s sharp 44% decline from its all-time high, analysts at investment firm Bernstein argue the current downturn lacks the hallmarks of a traditional crypto bear market. In a client note, they described the sell-off as ‘the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,’ driven by sentiment rather than broken fundamentals, and reaffirmed a $150,000 price target for the end of 2026.

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Bitcoin 2026 Outlook: Analysts Split Between $250K Bull Run and 60% Crash

As Bitcoin closed 2025 trading at $87,520—down 8% year-to-date—the market entered the new year gripped by extreme fear and starkly divided analyst projections. While prominent voices forecast a decade-long bull run targeting $250,000, others warn of a 60% decline from all-time highs, highlighting deep uncertainty about institutional flows and macroeconomic conditions that will define the coming year.

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Coinbase Stock Drops 40%, Bernstein Sees $510 Bull Run Ahead

Coinbase (COIN) shares have plunged nearly 40% from their July peak of $444 to around $271, mirroring heightened volatility in the broader cryptocurrency market. Despite this sharp decline, analysts at Bernstein maintain a resolutely bullish outlook, reaffirming a ‘Buy’ rating with a $510 price target. Their confidence stems from Coinbase’s strategic pivot from a pure trading platform toward what they term an emerging ‘everything exchange,’ a transformation they believe will fuel a new bullish phase.

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Bernstein Upgrades Coinbase Target to $510, Calls It ‘Misunderstood’

Investment firm Bernstein has significantly upgraded Coinbase’s price target to $510 by 2027, citing its resilience amid regulatory clarity and market dominance. Analysts highlighted Coinbase’s persistent market share, compliance-first approach, and involvement in stablecoin adoption as key growth drivers. The note also pointed to strategic moves like the Deribit acquisition and Base network adoption by institutions like JP Morgan. Unlike failed exchanges, Coinbase has avoided major hacks, reinforcing its ‘crypto safe haven’ status. The stock, trading at $349, has surged 36% YTD amid favorable crypto policies and S&P 500 inclusion.

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Ethereum ETFs Surge as Institutional Interest Grows

Ethereum ETFs are experiencing a significant influx of capital, with BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) contributing $281.3 million in inflows over the past week. Institutional interest is growing amid speculation that the SEC may soon approve staking features in Ethereum ETFs, prompting firms like Fidelity and Grayscale to modify their proposals. ETH price has surged, reclaiming $2,700, with $296.4 million flowing into ETH investment products last week alone. Analysts attribute the trend to rising demand for stablecoins and tokenization, with major payment players like Visa and Mastercard entering the space. Meanwhile, technical indicators suggest bullish momentum could continue if ETH breaks key resistance levels.

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Bitcoin Eyes $200K by Year-End Amid ETF and Institutional Demand

Bitcoin traded around $104,400 after briefly touching $105,000, with investors remaining optimistic despite short-term pullbacks. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan forecasts Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by December, citing institutional demand, ETF inflows, and fixed supply as major catalysts. While macroeconomic uncertainty has tempered recent gains, Hougan highlights growing adoption by corporations like MicroStrategy and potential government acquisitions as bullish signals. Analysts from Bernstein and Intuit Trading also project $200K, though with varying timelines. However, risks such as Fed policy shifts or regulatory changes could disrupt momentum.

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Bitcoin Eyes $200K as ETF Inflows and Corporate Buying Surge

Bitcoin’s price hovered near $102,600 after a brief peak at $105,000, with analysts like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan forecasting a potential rally to $200,000 by December 31. Key factors include accelerating ETF inflows, increasing corporate and government holdings, and a widening supply-demand gap—annual ETF purchases (500,000 BTC) now outpace new supply (165,000 BTC) by 3x. While economic volatility and regulatory risks remain, bullish forecasts from Bernstein and Intuit Trading suggest Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by mid-2025. Investors remain cautious but optimistic as institutional demand strengthens.

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Ethereum Surges 42% as Stablecoin Adoption Grows

Ethereum’s price surged 42% in the past week, reaching nearly $2,600, driven by increasing institutional and retail adoption of stablecoins and blockchain technology. Bernstein analysts highlight the growing use of stablecoins for cross-border payments, the potential for brokerages like Robinhood to offer tokenized equities on Ethereum-based Layer-2 networks, and a shift in investor perception favoring ETH. The Pectra upgrade, a more crypto-friendly U.S. political environment, and major corporate moves like Stripe’s stablecoin services and Meta’s renewed stablecoin venture have further bolstered Ethereum’s position. Bernstein notes that Ethereum dominates 51% of stablecoin supply and sees Layer-2 chains as key drivers of future ETH demand.

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Bitcoin Analysts Predict Price Will Reach 200000 This Year

Bitcoin has recently dipped below $90,000 for the first time since November, yet analysts at Bernstein remain optimistic, projecting a rise to $200,000 within the year. They attribute the ongoing bull run to institutional investments and the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, despite current market volatility influenced by economic factors and political policies. With Bitcoin up 69% over the past year, the analysts view the recent price correction as a buying opportunity.

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Crypto trends for 2025: Bitcoin reserves, ETFs, and AI integration

Analysts at Bernstein declare the onset of crypto’s “Infinity Age,” projecting Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by 2025, alongside a $500 billion stablecoin market. Key trends include a potential U.S. Bitcoin reserve, increased corporate treasury adoption, and a surge in Bitcoin ETF inflows, expected to exceed $70 billion. The report also highlights the integration of AI in crypto, anticipated regulatory clarity, and growing institutional interest in Ethereum, positioning it as a leading asset in the coming years. Additionally, a more pro-crypto SEC is expected to settle existing cases with crypto firms.

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