A striking statistical model from crypto analyst Timothy Peterson projects an 88% probability that Bitcoin will be higher ten months from now, based purely on historical monthly performance. This bold forecast, however, clashes sharply with the cautious odds priced into prediction markets and the divided views of prominent traders, revealing a fundamental tension between data-driven projections and real-time market sentiment during a period of geopolitical strain and price consolidation.
about Bitcoin's 88% Chance to Rise: Analyst vs. Market OddsPolymarket
1 in Finance and 3 in Crypto last weekDragonfly Capital Raises $650M Crypto Fund Despite Market Downturn
In a bold counter-cyclical move, crypto venture capital firm Dragonfly Capital has closed its fourth fund at $650 million, securing significant capital despite a severe market downturn and a backdrop of regulatory scrutiny. The fund, which exceeds its predecessor by $150 million, aims to fuel early-stage investments as deal activity slows across the crypto venture sector, testing the firm’s resilience forged through multiple market crises.
about Dragonfly Capital Raises $650M Crypto Fund Despite Market DownturnBitcoin Searches Hit ‘Extreme Fear’ as Price Slumps 47% From High
Google search queries asking if Bitcoin is dead have surged to their highest level since 2022, coinciding with a crypto market sentiment reading of ‘Extreme Fear.’ The top cryptocurrency has fallen roughly 47% from its October all-time high, fueling widespread pessimism. Prediction markets now assign higher odds to further declines than to a near-term recovery, creating a stark contrast between retail anxiety and institutional analysis.
about Bitcoin Searches Hit 'Extreme Fear' as Price Slumps 47% From HighWall Street Rushes into Election Prediction ETFs Amid Regulatory Battle
Major ETF issuers are racing to launch election-linked prediction market funds ahead of the U.S. midterms, drawing strong liquidity expectations from hedge funds while raising manipulation concerns. The filings come as the CFTC asserts federal authority over these controversial markets, setting up a jurisdictional clash with state regulators.
about Wall Street Rushes into Election Prediction ETFs Amid Regulatory BattleIsraeli Military Betting Scandal: Classified Intel Used on Polymarket
Israeli authorities have indicted an Israel Defense Forces reservist and a civilian for allegedly exploiting classified military information to place bets on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket. This unprecedented security scandal, involving multiple defense agencies, exposes profound national security risks and raises urgent questions about market integrity in the rapidly evolving world of crypto-based prediction markets. A court-issued gag order currently shrouds the full scope of the investigation, but the case signals a decisive crackdown on the unlawful use of state secrets for financial gain.
about Israeli Military Betting Scandal: Classified Intel Used on PolymarketCFTC Appoints Crypto Leaders to New Innovation Advisory Panel
In a significant move signaling a more collaborative regulatory approach, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has appointed 35 members to its newly formed Innovation Advisory Committee, with more than half representing the cryptocurrency industry. Led by Chair Michael S. Selig, the committee aims to modernize financial regulations for emerging technologies like blockchain and artificial intelligence, marking a pivotal shift in how Washington engages with digital asset innovators.
about CFTC Appoints Crypto Leaders to New Innovation Advisory PanelU.S. Treasury Secretary Urges Crypto Clarity Act to Calm Volatile Markets
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has positioned the proposed Clarity Act as the antidote to recent cryptocurrency market turbulence, arguing that regulatory certainty would provide much-needed stability. In a pointed critique, Bessent labeled the significant downturn—including Bitcoin’s 29% monthly decline—as partly “self-induced,” blaming resistance from major industry players like Coinbase. With prediction markets assigning only a 62% chance of the bill becoming law by 2026, the path to regulatory clarity remains fraught with political and industry opposition.
about U.S. Treasury Secretary Urges Crypto Clarity Act to Calm Volatile MarketsSEC Eyes Prediction Markets, May Challenge CFTC’s Hands-Off Approach
In a significant regulatory development, SEC Chair Paul Atkins has signaled his agency’s readiness to assert jurisdiction over the rapidly expanding prediction market industry, potentially challenging the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s historically hands-off approach. During testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Atkins argued that certain prediction market products could qualify as securities based on their structure and wording, giving the SEC existing authority to regulate them without new legislation. This move could reshape oversight of a market that has exploded to $63.5 billion in just two years, with major implications for leading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
about SEC Eyes Prediction Markets, May Challenge CFTC's Hands-Off ApproachIsrael Arrests Two for Military Insider Trading on Polymarket
Israeli authorities have charged two citizens with exploiting classified military intelligence to place bets on the crypto prediction market Polymarket, marking a stark collision between national security and the burgeoning world of decentralized finance. The case, involving an Israel Defense Forces reservist and a civilian accused of wagering on planned military operations, underscores the severe regulatory and ethical challenges prediction markets face as they intersect with sensitive state affairs.
about Israel Arrests Two for Military Insider Trading on PolymarketBitcoin’s Price: Beyond Halving Myths to Cycle Interactions
Bitcoin’s price is shaped by more than just its halving cycle or macro trends alone. New analysis reveals how overlapping internal and external cycles interact in complex ways. Understanding these dynamics requires moving beyond simplistic narratives to quantitative tools.
about Bitcoin's Price: Beyond Halving Myths to Cycle InteractionsPrediction Markets Hit $63.5B Amid Wash Trading, Security Risks
The prediction market sector experienced explosive growth in 2025, with annual trading volume quadrupling to $63.5 billion, according to a new report from blockchain security firm CertiK. However, this surge masks significant structural strains, including research indicating that nearly 60% of activity on leading platform Polymarket during incentive periods was artificial wash trading. While market prices have so far remained reliable, CertiK warns that hybrid security vulnerabilities, heavy reliance on promotional incentives, and expanding state-level regulation threaten the long-term sustainability of platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion as they dominate the consolidating liquidity.
about Prediction Markets Hit $63.5B Amid Wash Trading, Security RisksPolyX Gold Bot Review: Telegram Crypto Trading Alerts
In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency trading, particularly within prediction markets like Polymarket, timely information is a critical asset. PolyX Gold Bot emerges as a Telegram-native solution, delivering real-time market alerts and trading assistance directly within the messaging app. This tool is designed for traders who prioritize speed and convenience, offering a lightweight, mobile-friendly portal to monitor volatility, whale activity, and new opportunities without the need to switch between external platforms or complex dashboards.
about PolyX Gold Bot Review: Telegram Crypto Trading Alerts