Oil Rallies as IEA Trims Supply Surplus Forecast

Oil prices have rebounded from their lowest close in nearly two months, buoyed by a wave of optimism in broader financial markets. This recovery coincides with a significant shift from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has trimmed its estimates for the global oil supply surplus for this year and next—the first such downward revision in several months. The adjustment, driven by strengthening demand and slowing output growth, signals a potential tightening in market balances and a notable convergence with OPEC’s long-held market outlook.

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OPEC+ Pauses Oil Output Hikes, BP Sells $1.5B Shale Stakes

Oil prices climbed as OPEC+ announced it will pause production increases next quarter following a modest December hike, while BP agreed to divest $1.5 billion in US shale assets to investment firm Sixth Street. These strategic moves across the energy sector come alongside mixed European market performance, with Ryanair shares declining despite beating quarterly profit expectations, highlighting ongoing adjustments in global energy markets and corporate portfolio optimization.

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Crypto Recovers After Trump Tariff Shock, Key Data Ahead

Cryptocurrency markets staged a dramatic recovery Monday after experiencing their largest leverage flush in history over the weekend. The selloff was triggered by President Trump’s announcement of additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, creating widespread market volatility across both crypto and traditional assets.

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OPEC’s Key Oil Curve Tanks Ahead of Supply Meeting

A critical oil market indicator that OPEC+ has relied upon is weakening just days before the group’s crucial supply meeting. The premium for immediate Brent crude deliveries over future contracts, known as backwardation, is showing signs of faltering after months of stability. This development comes despite the alliance’s gradual return of 2.2 million barrels per day to the market, signaling potential shifts in trader sentiment about fundamental market tightness as production policy decisions loom.

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Indian Markets Set for Positive Start Amid Mixed Global Cues

Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are poised for a higher opening on Monday despite mixed global market signals, with Gift Nifty trading approximately 120 points above the previous close indicating positive sentiment. This comes after domestic markets recorded their sixth consecutive session of losses on Friday, with investors now focusing on key triggers including the RBI’s monetary policy decision, progress on the India-US trade deal, and ongoing foreign fund outflows that have dampened market confidence.

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Crypto & Stocks Rally Amid Rate Cut Hopes, Inflation Data Looms

Markets are rallying as traders anticipate a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with odds currently at 88%. Despite this optimism, analysts caution that trade tensions and macroeconomic risks could introduce volatility. This week’s economic calendar is packed with critical data, including the CPI and PPI inflation reports, retail sales figures, and consumer sentiment readings—all of which could influence Fed policy. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum are surging, with Bitcoin nearing its all-time high and Ethereum just 11.5% away from its 2021 peak. Altcoins remain mostly flat, except for outliers like Hyperliquid and Chainlink. Investors are also watching Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report for further market cues.

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Oil Prices Steady Amid US Stockpiles & OPEC Supply Hikes

Oil markets remained steady as traders balanced concerns over a significant rise in US crude stockpiles against fresh tariff announcements from President Donald Trump. OPEC leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait reaffirmed the need for increased supply to stabilize global markets. Goldman Sachs’ Daan Struyven provided insights during an interview at the OPEC Seminar in Vienna, highlighting the delicate balance between geopolitical factors and production adjustments influencing oil prices.

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Crypto Markets Stabilize Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Crypto markets showed signs of stabilization over the weekend following a $200 billion sell-off on Friday due to heightened geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming economic events, including May’s Retail Sales report and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which could further influence market sentiment. Bitcoin reclaimed the $106,000 level after a brief dip, while Ethereum and select altcoins posted modest gains. Oil prices surged nearly 5%, reflecting ongoing market volatility. The week ahead also includes the OPEC Monthly Report and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, adding to a packed economic calendar.

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Crypto Markets Hold Gains Amid US-China Trade Talks

Crypto markets remained resilient over the weekend despite ongoing US-China trade talks and macroeconomic uncertainty. The Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates unchanged, adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach due to tariff-related risks. This week, critical inflation data (CPI and PPI) and retail sales reports could sway market sentiment. Bitcoin hovered near $104,000, just shy of its all-time high, while Ethereum surged over 40% in the past week. Altcoins also saw gains, though momentum slowed. Traders are eyeing upcoming economic indicators, including consumer sentiment and OPEC’s monthly report, for further market direction.

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Global Markets React to Economic Policies and Trade Tensions

U.S. stocks edged higher amid hopes for tariff relief from President Trump, despite a disappointing jobs report showing only 77,000 private-sector jobs added in February. The S&P 500 rose 0.1%, while the Dow was flat and the Nasdaq gained 0.2%. Concerns over the economic impact of escalating trade tensions persist, as the Fed’s potential interest rate cuts are now viewed negatively by markets.

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Stocks Decline as New US Tariffs Impact Global Markets and Economies

Stocks fell and bond yields dropped in Asia as new U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China took effect, raising concerns over escalating trade tensions and their impact on the U.S. economy. The Australian dollar weakened, while oil prices continued to decline amid OPEC+ output plans. Despite initial losses, Asian markets found some stability as investors reacted to the measured responses from affected countries.

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