10-Year Treasury Yield: 60+ Years of Economic Trends

The 10-year Treasury yield has served as a critical economic barometer for over six decades, reflecting the ongoing tension between inflation control and economic stimulus. This analysis traces its historical trajectory from 1962 through 2025, revealing patterns that continue to shape monetary policy today. The yield’s dramatic fluctuations provide valuable insights into the Federal Reserve’s evolving approach to economic management.

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Fed Rate Cut Fails to Boost Bitcoin as Markets Shrug

The Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated 25 basis point interest rate cut failed to ignite cryptocurrency markets as Bitcoin continued trading well below recent record highs. Despite economic indicators pointing to slowing growth and rising unemployment, digital assets remained largely unimpressed by the monetary policy move, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum declining approximately 3% following the announcement.

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Investors Turn to Secondary Data Amid Government Shutdown

With the ongoing government shutdown delaying crucial economic reports, investors are increasingly relying on secondary indicators to gauge the health of the U.S. economy. This shift comes during a week of renewed S&P 500 volatility fueled by reignited tariff discussions. Market participants are navigating an unusual data void as traditional government sources remain unavailable, forcing a fundamental change in how market intelligence is gathered and analyzed.

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Swiss Producer Prices Fall 0.2% in September 2025

Switzerland’s Producer and Import Price Index declined by 0.2% in September 2025, reaching 105.3 points as measured against the December 2020 baseline, according to data released by the Federal Statistical Office. The monthly decrease was primarily driven by falling petroleum and natural gas prices, though green coffee bucked the trend with notable price increases. Year-over-year, the overall price level showed a more substantial decline of 1.8% compared to September 2024, signaling persistent deflationary pressures in the Swiss economy.

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10-Year Treasury Yield Trends Since 1962

The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations over the past six decades, reaching a peak of 15.68% in 1981. This analysis examines its historical relationship with key economic indicators including the Fed Funds Rate, inflation, and stock market performance, providing crucial context for understanding current bond market dynamics and their implications for investors and policymakers navigating today’s economic landscape.

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Crypto Rebounds as Fed Rate Cut Hopes, Labor Data Loom

Cryptocurrency markets are showing rare gains Monday morning as investors await a crucial week of labor market data that could influence Federal Reserve policy. Core PCE inflation matching expectations last week has reinforced hopes for additional rate cuts, with all eyes on how employment figures will shape the Fed’s upcoming decisions at October and December meetings.

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Oil Mergers Drive Layoffs, Signal Economic Concerns

Major oil companies are implementing significant workforce reductions following industry mergers, with ConocoPhillips planning to cut 20-25% of its staff after acquiring Marathon. These consolidations are strengthening market positioning while raising concerns about broader economic trouble ahead. The trend reflects a pattern where closely related company mergers typically result in substantial layoffs to boost earnings.

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Crypto Bull Run Still Early: Expert Analysis

Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, argues that comprehensive economic indicators show the crypto bull run remains in its early stages. Contrary to widespread ‘peak cycle’ sentiment, Bittel’s analysis reveals subdued economic sentiment across multiple measures including ISM, NAHB, and consumer confidence indexes. Nearly 90% of central banks globally are cutting rates, creating extraordinary conditions and a massive tailwind for the business cycle. Oil prices trading 20% below trend and Temporary Help Services data showing early-cycle recovery patterns further support the early-cycle thesis. Bittel frames current conditions as ‘Macro Spring’ transitioning to ‘Macro Summer,’ challenging crypto market narratives that suggest the cycle has peaked.

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