The International Energy Agency has dramatically shifted its stance on global oil consumption, reintroducing a scenario that projects demand growth continuing through mid-century rather than peaking this decade. This significant revision, detailed in the agency’s latest report, marks a departure from last year’s projections and reflects expectations for slower electric vehicle adoption, suggesting the energy transition may unfold more gradually than previously anticipated.

The International Energy Agency has dramatically reversed its long-term oil demand forecast, projecting continued growth through mid-century rather than the plateau predicted last year. This significant shift, driven by slower-than-expected electric vehicle adoption rates, signals profound implications for global energy markets and climate goals. The agency now forecasts a 13% increase in oil consumption by 2050, suggesting fossil fuels will maintain a substantial role in the global energy mix longer than many climate advocates had anticipated.