AI Drives $50B Data Center Boom, Fed’s Bostic to Retire

Artificial intelligence continues to dominate market conversations as Anthropic unveils massive $50 billion data center plans while AMD forecasts accelerating sales growth. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic announces his upcoming retirement from the central bank, marking a significant leadership transition at the Federal Reserve as AI infrastructure spending reaches unprecedented levels.

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Weak PMI, CPI Data & Crypto Volatility: Key Market Movers

Recent PMI reports indicate a third consecutive month of manufacturing contraction and the first services decline in 11 months, raising economic concerns. Crypto markets, though calmer after last week’s Trump-Musk spat, face potential volatility with upcoming CPI and PPI inflation reports. The May CPI, a critical inflation gauge, is expected to confirm persistent price pressures, influencing Fed policy. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain range-bound, with altcoins showing minimal movement. Trade talks and consumer sentiment data add further uncertainty to the week’s outlook.

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US GDP Contracts 0.2%, Bitcoin Holds Steady Amid Inflation

The U.S. economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.2% in Q1 2024, with inflation-adjusted final sales dropping 2.9% as consumer spending slowed. Corporate profits fell 3.6%, ending a two-year growth streak, while jobless claims rose slightly. Despite the economic slowdown, inflation remains stubbornly high, with the GDP price index at 3.7% and core PCE at 3.4%, both above the Fed’s 2% target. Bitcoin dipped only 0.4% post-data release, holding above $108,000. The Fed is expected to maintain higher interest rates until inflation cools and labor market slack becomes evident. Forward-looking indicators suggest a mild rebound in Q2, but risks of prolonged economic weakness persist.

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US GDP Contracts 0.3% in Q1 2025, Stagflation Fears Rise

The US Commerce Department reported a 0.3% annualized GDP contraction in Q1 2025, missing forecasts of 0.4% growth. Key drivers included rising imports and reduced government spending, partially offset by consumer and business investment. Inflation remained elevated, with the core PCE price index rising 3.5%. Trading Economics revised its Q2 forecast to -1.2%, signaling a likely technical recession. Financial markets reacted cautiously, with Bitcoin dropping 0.5% and S&P 500 futures falling 0.77%. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model had predicted a steeper -2.7% decline, highlighting economic uncertainty ahead of upcoming BEA revisions in May and June.

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Dogecoin and Shiba Inu Prices Plummet Amid Trade War and Market Uncertainty

Dogecoin and Shiba Inu prices have plummeted over 14% and 12%, respectively, driven by concerns over Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which have sparked fears of a trade war. Additionally, the pause in military aid to Ukraine and the Federal Reserve’s tightening policies have contributed to market uncertainty, leading to significant sell-offs. The decline in Bitcoin prices, which strongly correlates with these meme coins, further exacerbates the bearish sentiment in the crypto market.

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Trump’s Tariff War Sparks Economic Concerns and Stock Market Declines

Donald Trump’s recent tariff increases on imports from neighboring countries and China are causing significant concern for the economy, with predictions of a 2.83% GDP shrinkage in Q1. Investors are reacting nervously, as stocks fall amid escalating trade tensions, with China and Canada planning retaliatory tariffs on US goods. The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s motivations for this tariff war leaves many questioning the potential outcomes.

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Market Outlook: Key Earnings Reports and Inflation Data This Week

This week, investors are focused on key earnings reports from Nvidia, Salesforce, Home Depot, and Stellantis, amid concerns over AI spending and a sluggish housing market. The Federal Reserve will closely monitor the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and other economic indicators, including consumer confidence and GDP revisions, as inflation data remains a critical concern.

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Monetary Policy Insights Amid Labor Market Strength and Inflation Trends

Monetary policy decisions should be guided by data rather than speculation, as inflation remains above the 2% target despite recent rate cuts. The labor market is stable, but inflation’s slow progress prompts a cautious approach, with a pause in rate cuts deemed appropriate while monitoring potential seasonal effects on inflation data. The impact of tariffs on prices is expected to be modest and non-persistent, allowing policymakers to focus on broader economic indicators.

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US Economic Outlook and Stock Market Resilience Amid Challenges

U.S. businesses are optimistic as they enter 2025, particularly in manufacturing, anticipating growth from new administration policies. Despite a slight slowdown in output, strong consumer and business balance sheets support ongoing economic health, with GDP growth projected at 3.0% for Q4. However, risks such as political uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil remain, reminding investors to stay vigilant amid market volatility.

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Three Key Market Dislocations Investors Should Reassess Now

Deutsche Bank identifies three major dislocations in US markets that may lead to mispricing: 1. Investors are overly optimistic about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, despite persistent inflation above the target.2. Market participants underestimate the aggressiveness of Trump’s tariff plans, which could significantly impact trade.3. Stock valuations are alarmingly high compared to weak economic growth, raising concerns about a potential market correction. These factors suggest a need for investors to reassess their outlooks.

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