Bitcoin ETFs See $1.62B Outflows as Basis Trade Yields Collapse

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are facing one of their most severe tests since launch, hemorrhaging $1.62 billion over four consecutive trading days. The exodus, driven by hedge funds rapidly exiting a now-unprofitable arbitrage strategy, coincides with a sharp downturn in Bitcoin’s price and a broader risk-off shift across financial markets, raising questions about the near-term trajectory of the flagship cryptocurrency.

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Bitcoin Plunges 15% as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Fade

Bitcoin led a major cryptocurrency sell-off on Thursday, dropping 15% from recent all-time highs as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that further interest rate cuts may not materialize this year. The downturn, which saw Bitcoin fall below $108,000, was compounded by market disappointment over the lack of concrete outcomes from President Trump’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, triggering over $1.1 billion in crypto futures liquidations and dragging major altcoins like Ethereum and Solana even lower.

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Bitcoin & Gold Surge as Debasement Hedge Amid Trump Tariffs

Bitcoin’s record rally hit a sudden wall after President Trump’s tariff threats triggered a historic crypto liquidation event. While Bitcoin has partially recovered, gold has already reached new highs as both assets continue serving as hedges against currency debasement according to market experts.

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Bitcoin Faces $17B Options Expiry, Inflation Test

Bitcoin is approaching a critical volatility flashpoint as approximately $17 billion in quarterly options—one of the largest expiries on record—are set to settle on Friday. This significant derivatives event coincides with the release of key U.S. inflation data, the Core PCE, creating a potent mix that could either reignite the rally or trigger a sharp correction. Experts warn that a break below the crucial $108,000 support level could unleash automated selling, potentially driving the price toward $96,000, while softer inflation figures could provide the catalyst for a rebound.

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Bitcoin Volatility Hits Record Lows as Asset Matures

Bitcoin has entered its longest period of low volatility on record, with 60-day measures staying below 50% since early 2023 through 2025. This sustained compression occurred alongside significant price appreciation and growing market capitalization. The asset’s volatility profile is increasingly resembling traditional risk assets as institutional participation deepens.

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Bitcoin to Hit $150K in 2024, Says Canary Capital CEO

Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, forecasts Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2024, driven by ETF inflows and institutional demand, before a bear market in 2026. He dismisses Ethereum as outdated, favoring Solana and Sui, though analysts highlight Ethereum’s developer ecosystem as a key strength. McClurg also anticipates a Litecoin resurgence, citing its efficiency for smaller transactions, while noting crypto’s seasonal volatility. Meanwhile, Canary Capital has filed for altcoin ETFs, excluding Ethereum, amid a broader market rally.

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Bitcoin Rises as Trump Picks Pro-Crypto Fed Nominee

Bitcoin climbed to $117,500 following Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran, a known Bitcoin advocate, to the Federal Reserve Board. Miran’s appointment is seen as a dovish shift, aligning with Trump’s push for easier monetary policy. Analysts caution that reduced Fed independence could fuel inflation, drawing parallels to the 1970s when gold prices skyrocketed after the collapse of Bretton Woods. Despite Bitcoin’s rally, its market cap remains dwarfed by traditional assets like NVIDIA, suggesting room for growth if inflation fears escalate. Weak Treasury demand and rising gold prices signal market concerns over persistent inflation, with the latest PCE reading at 2.6%, above the Fed’s target.

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XRP Hits 6-Month High as Open Interest Surges to $8.8B

XRP reached a six-month high, trading at $3.05, as notional open interest for its perpetual futures soared to $8.8 billion, surpassing a previous peak from January. Bullish sentiment was evident with positive funding rates across exchanges like Binance and Bitget, where leveraged positions were concentrated. Analysts attribute the rally to retail traders revisiting pandemic-era favorites, while regulatory clarity around Ripple Labs’ legal battle with the SEC adds momentum. The XRP Ledger’s compliance features could further boost adoption if stablecoin legislation progresses.

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Ethereum Surge Triggers $152M Short Liquidations

Ethereum’s sharp 9% price surge to over $3,330 led to $152 million in short contract liquidations, accounting for more than half of all crypto liquidations in the past 24 hours. Trading volume jumped 15% to $132 billion, outpacing Bitcoin, while futures volume grew 27% and open interest rose nearly 9%. Analysts note healthy market dynamics with fresh positioning and neutral funding, suggesting balanced sentiment rather than excessive leverage. Regulatory uncertainty, including failed crypto legislation, has contributed to Ethereum’s volatility, according to industry experts. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes declared this ‘ETH season,’ with his venture firm planning major DeFi investments. The surge follows increased institutional interest and optimism around Ethereum’s smart contract dominance.

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Ethereum Rises as Bitcoin Dips: Key Market Shifts

Ethereum (ETH) gained 4% in 24 hours and 20% over the week, trading at $3,128, while Bitcoin (BTC) dipped 1.9%, briefly falling below $117,000. ETH’s rally reflects corporate treasury purchases, including Sharplink Gaming’s $225 million acquisition and BitMine’s $500 million holdings. Regulatory optimism, particularly around potential SEC approval of Ethereum ETFs with staking, further buoyed ETH. Analysts noted ETH’s outperformance despite a stalled U.S. crypto bill, attributing its strength to derivatives market activity and institutional interest. Bitcoin’s recent 300% two-year surge contrasts with ETH’s 60% gain, though ETH remains down 8% YTD.

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Crypto Gains Amid Trade Talks: BTC, ETH Edge Up

Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana posted slight gains despite ongoing U.S. trade negotiations and tariff threats. Bitcoin hovered around $109,659, up 0.7%, while altcoins rose 2-4%. Analysts suggest traders are unfazed by tariff deadlines, expecting further extensions, and are instead hedging risks through options trading. The crypto market has shown resilience, with institutional investors using strategies like covered calls and protective puts to mitigate volatility. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, the market has grown more stable, reducing panic-driven sell-offs.

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Ethereum’s $5K Target Unlikely by 2025, Data Shows

Ethereum’s price trajectory remains uncertain, with Amberdata data indicating only a 12% chance of ETH exceeding $5,000 by December 2025. Retail traders are targeting $3,000 by month-end, while institutions eye $3,500 by June. Despite rising open interest in ETH options—now matching December highs—volatility remains cheap, reflecting cautious optimism. Ethereum has lagged behind Bitcoin this year, with traders focusing on BTC amid the ongoing Bitcoin Conference. ETH derivatives open interest stands at $35 billion, up 8.8%, with positive funding rates suggesting continued market interest.

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