VanEck: Bitcoin Cycle Breaks, Gold & AI Stocks Gain Favor

VanEck’s Tuesday investment note delivered a pivotal assessment: the clean four-year Bitcoin cycle, historically tied to its halving events, has “clearly broken down.” This conclusion, echoed by SynFutures CEO Rachel Lin in comments to Decrypt, fundamentally alters the framework for evaluating the digital asset. “Institutional participation, ETFs, and macro-driven flows now matter more than halving narratives alone,” Lin stated. With Bitcoin trading near $92,000, the breakdown of this predictable pattern complicates short-term signals, leading VanEck to adopt a “more cautious near-term outlook over the next three to six months” for the broader crypto sector.

This cautious house view, however, is not unanimous within VanEck. The firm’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, and portfolio manager David Schassler are noted as remaining “more constructive on the immediate cycle,” highlighting an active internal debate on crypto’s trajectory. The evolving investor behavior, as described by Bitget CEO Gracy Chen, supports the thesis of a structural shift. “Investors are adjusting their positioning, increasing allocations to spot Bitcoin and derivatives as part of broader portfolio strategies rather than timing purely cyclical peaks and troughs,” Chen told Decrypt. This move toward strategic allocation over speculative timing underscores the market’s maturation but also introduces new complexities for price prediction.

In stark contrast to its divided crypto stance, VanEck issues a clear risk-on signal for specific traditional assets, attributing this clarity to a rare alignment in “fiscal policy, monetary direction, and major investment themes.” The firm posits that AI-related stocks look “more attractive today” than at their October peaks following a recent market correction. This bullish call on AI reflects a conviction in the theme’s long-term viability, presenting a calculated entry point after volatility.

Concurrently, VanEck elevates gold’s role, describing it as re-emerging as a “leading global currency” driven significantly by central bank demand. While technically acknowledging gold appears “somewhat extended” at its current price near $4,615, the firm views any pullbacks as a “good opportunity” to add exposure. Analysts reinforce this strategic view. Rachel Lin framed gold as “a constructive allocation… more about stability and capital preservation than outsized upside at this stage,” while Gracy Chen noted it serves as a “portfolio stabilizer” for those who manage exposure dynamically. Market sentiment, as gauged on prediction market Myriad (owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan), aligns with this gold thesis, showing an 82% chance users place on gold hitting $5,000 before Ethereum.

The analysis arrives amid a backdrop of significant political risk, most notably a Department of Justice lawsuit against Fed Chair Jerome Powell that questions central bank independence. VanEck suggests this environment could be a powerful catalyst, reshaping the very investment landscape it outlines. “If Fed independence is seriously questioned, it could accelerate diversification into non-sovereign assets,” Rachel Lin explained. In such a scenario, the role of assets like Bitcoin and gold would be fundamentally redefined, moving from alternative investments to core monetary hedges.

This potential acceleration places Bitcoin, in particular, in a new light. VanEck’s note concludes that alongside gold, Bitcoin “stands to benefit” from a crisis of confidence in sovereign monetary systems, potentially cementing its status as a viable hedge. The convergence of a broken historical cycle, clear institutional and macro drivers, and escalating political uncertainty paints a complex picture for investors. The path forward, as per VanEck’s analysis, favors a strategic portfolio approach that balances the cautious potential of crypto with the clearer, policy-driven opportunities in AI and the timeless, stability-seeking appeal of gold as a global currency.