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The US economy is set to release its Q1 GDP estimate on April 30, with forecasts pointing to a sharp slowdown. Meanwhile, new tariffs on imports could further disrupt growth, though their full impact won’t be felt until Q2.
- Q1 GDP growth is forecast at just 0.9%, a sharp drop from Q4's 2.4%, with risks skewed downward due to tariff-related import surges.
- New tariffs on Chinese goods (up to 145%) may distort Q1 trade data as importers rushed shipments ahead of the April deadline.
- The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a -2.2% contraction for Q1, with net exports dragging growth by -4.9 percentage points.
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