TotalEnergies: AC Surge to Drive Global Power Demand

Thomas-Olivier Leautier, chief economist of French oil major TotalEnergies SE, has identified a critical but underappreciated factor in global energy forecasts: the coming surge in air conditioning demand. Speaking at the BloombergNEF Summit in London, Leautier emphasized that while analysts have focused heavily on electric vehicles and artificial intelligence data centers as primary drivers of electricity consumption, the impact of cooling requirements has been largely underestimated in energy market projections.

The French energy expert’s analysis reveals a fundamental shift in how we should understand future power demand patterns. “Cooling is improving rapidly as the global population expands and becomes richer, making air conditioning more affordable,” Leautier stated during his October 14, 2025 interview. This combination of demographic growth and increasing wealth in developing nations creates a perfect storm for cooling demand that will have “a major impact on power consumption by the middle of the century.”

Leautier’s assessment points to a dramatic divergence between oil and electricity demand trajectories. While oil consumption “will probably flatten out as electric vehicles spread,” power use will experience sustained growth across multiple fronts. The TotalEnergies economist’s perspective highlights how the energy transition is creating winners and losers across different energy commodities, with electricity positioned to capture an increasingly dominant share of global energy consumption.

The convergence of three major demand drivers—electric vehicles, AI data centers, and now air conditioning—creates unprecedented pressure on global power systems. Leautier’s warning suggests that current infrastructure planning and investment may be insufficient to handle the compounded demand from these sectors. The French company’s analysis indicates that traditional energy forecasting models have failed to adequately account for the multiplicative effect of these simultaneous demand surges.

This structural shift represents both a challenge and opportunity for energy companies like TotalEnergies, which must navigate the transition from oil-dominated portfolios to electricity-focused business models. The United Kingdom, where Leautier delivered his remarks, serves as a microcosm of these global trends, with its own ambitious electrification targets facing the reality of rising cooling demands during increasingly warm summers.

The democratization of air conditioning technology represents a fundamental change in global living standards with profound energy consequences. As Leautier noted, improving affordability means that populations previously unable to access cooling technology will increasingly incorporate air conditioning into their daily lives. This trend extends beyond residential comfort to include commercial, industrial, and agricultural applications, each adding layers to overall electricity demand.

The timing of this cooling surge coincides with other electricity-intensive transformations in the global economy. Electric vehicles are displacing internal combustion engines, while the artificial intelligence revolution demands ever-expanding data center capacity. Leautier’s analysis suggests that the cooling component of this demand triad may prove particularly challenging for grid operators, as air conditioning usage typically peaks during the same hot periods when solar generation might be compromised by heat-related efficiency losses.

For energy markets and policymakers, the implications are clear: planning for future electricity needs must account for what Leautier describes as this “overlooked” driver. The TotalEnergies perspective adds crucial nuance to energy transition discussions, reminding stakeholders that climate change adaptation—through increased cooling—will itself become a significant contributor to energy demand patterns through the mid-century timeframe.