O’Leary Doubts December Fed Cut, Sees Bitcoin Stable

The financial markets are currently betting heavily on a shift in monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in an 89% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, a dramatic swing from just weeks prior. This repricing of expectations has been a primary catalyst for recent rallies across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, Kevin O’Leary, the well-known investor and entrepreneur, is pushing back forcefully against this consensus. He stated plainly that he is “not investing as if the Fed will ease policy,” positioning his portfolio for a scenario where the central bank stands pat.

O’Leary’s skepticism is rooted in a fundamental reading of economic data, specifically inflation. He pointed to the September US consumer price report, which showed prices rising at a 3% annual rate—the fastest pace since January—as evidence that inflationary pressures remain too sticky for the Fed to comfortably pivot to rate cuts. This data point, he argues, underscores that the trade-off between supporting employment and controlling prices is still very much on the minds of policymakers at the Federal Reserve.

Despite O’Leary’s cautious outlook, Bitcoin has staged a notable technical recovery, illustrating the market’s bullish positioning. After a recent dip to near $83,000, the cryptocurrency climbed to trade around $93,700 in early sessions, with market trackers like Coingecko listing prices in the $92,700–$92,800 band. This rally has been partly attributed to the shifting Fed expectations, but analysts also cite other supportive factors from the traditional finance (TradFi) sphere.

Key among these is a reported liquidity injection by the Federal Reserve. Disclosures indicate the Fed quietly added more than $13 billion in liquidity to short-term funding markets, a move analysts say has helped restore conditions in money markets. Coupled with a pause in the central bank’s Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, quantitative desks have flagged this liquidity boost as a significant factor in restoring bullish momentum to crypto assets. This backdrop has helped Bitcoin establish what traders identify as crucial technical levels: solid support at $90,000 and immediate resistance near $92,500.

The immediate future for Bitcoin appears to hinge on a clash between O’Leary’s fundamental skepticism and the market’s technical momentum. Traders are closely watching the $92,500 resistance level, with market desk notes suggesting a decisive break above it could open a path toward the $94,000 to $95,000 range. Conversely, the $90,000 level is seen as the key line buyers must defend to prevent a deeper pullback.

Ultimately, the direction may be determined by official signals from the Federal Reserve itself in the coming days. While O’Leary downplays the impact of a single Fed decision on Bitcoin, his view remains at odds with a market that has already positioned for easing, and those positions have demonstrably moved prices. The interplay between ongoing liquidity conditions, the veracity of inflation data, and the Fed’s communication will likely decide whether Bitcoin consolidates within O’Leary’s predicted narrow range or makes a run for the technical targets eyed by bullish traders.