Goldman Sachs Upgrades Coinbase to Buy, Raises Price Target

The Goldman Sachs upgrade, led by analyst James Yaro, is rooted in Coinbase’s aggressive push beyond its core cryptocurrency exchange business. The analysts highlighted recent product rollouts across “traditional brokerage, digital consumer and business banking, digital wealth, and tokenization” as key differentiators. These initiatives, including the launch of traditional stock trading last month, position Coinbase to compete directly with neo-brokers like Robinhood (HOOD) that already offer a full suite of traditional and crypto products. Yaro’s team argued this expansion is among the most significant developments for the company, as it leverages its massive scale of approximately 9.5 million monthly transacting users and powerful brand recognition to capture new revenue streams.

This strategic broadening is expected to fundamentally alter Coinbase’s financial profile. Historically dependent on transaction fees tied to crypto market cycles, the company now derives around 40% of its revenue from more predictable subscriptions and services. This segment includes its custody and staking businesses, as well as income from stablecoins. The analysts noted that Coinbase’s growing exposure to these infrastructure-oriented businesses could make its future earnings “less volatile,” supporting a shift from what they termed “cyclical to structural growth.” This transition underpins their raised price target of $303, up from $294, and suggests a higher valuation over time.

Goldman’s bullish stance is quantified in its long-term revenue projections. The analysts forecast a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% for Coinbase through 2027, notably above the 8% average they anticipate for its peers. This above-average growth outlook is attributed directly to the company’s scale and expanding competitive moat. The upgrade coincided with a surge in Bitcoin (BTC), which climbed above $94,000 to hit a multi-week high, providing a favorable macro backdrop. Coinbase shares responded positively, rising 8% on Monday to close at $255.

Despite its growth, Coinbase’s dominance in spot crypto trading remains a foundational metric. The analysts noted that the exchange accounted for 5% of total global spot crypto trading volume in 2025, a significant share in a fragmented global market. However, the core thesis of the upgrade is not about capturing more trading volume, but about diversifying away from it. The company’s foray into tokenization—exemplified by its new service to help other firms issue digital securities—is framed as a precursor to a broader financial infrastructure role. This aligns with Goldman’s continued positive view on other crypto-adjacent firms like Interactive Brokers (IBKR) and Figure Technologies.

In a contrasting move that underscores the selective nature of the current market, Goldman Sachs analysts downgraded social trading platform eToro from ‘Buy’ to ‘Neutral.’ They also significantly lowered their price target for the company to $39 from $48. The primary concern cited is the challenge of eToro’s renewed expansion efforts in the competitive U.S. market, where its offerings are seen as having considerable overlap with established competitors, potentially limiting its near-term traction.

Nevertheless, the analysts maintained a favorable view of eToro’s long-term growth trajectory, specifically citing its strong foothold in European crypto markets. This bifurcated assessment—downgrading on near-term U.S. execution risks while acknowledging long-term potential—highlights the nuanced landscape for crypto brokerages. It places a premium on clear competitive differentiation and scalable infrastructure, areas where Goldman believes Coinbase currently holds an edge. The simultaneous upgrade of Coinbase and downgrade of eToro paints a picture of a maturing sector where scale, product breadth, and brand are becoming increasingly critical determinants of analyst sentiment.