In the third quarter of 2024, global house prices experienced a significant year-on-year decline of 1.6% in real terms. This trend is largely driven by substantial drops in several major emerging market economies, contrasting with slight increases in advanced economies.
Global Housing Market Overview
Despite the overall global decline, around 60% of the areas analyzed reported increases in real house prices. This led to a median rise of 1.5%, indicating that while some regions struggled, others thrived. Major declines in economies such as China, Türkiye, and South Africa significantly impacted the global average.
- China experienced a dramatic 9% drop.
- Türkiye’s prices fell by 14%.
- Countries in Central Europe, including Bulgaria, Croatia, and Poland, saw notable price increases.
Advanced Economies Performance
In advanced economies, the housing market’s resilience is evident, with real residential property prices rising by 0.5% year on year in Q3 2024. Australia led with a remarkable 4% increase, while the United States and Japan reported more modest gains of nearly 1% each.
For the first time since 2022, real house prices in the euro area and the United Kingdom turned positive. This indicates potential stabilization in these markets, although Canada faced a contrasting trend with a 6% decline in prices, reflecting localized challenges within the advanced economy sector.
Regional Variations in Advanced Economies
Within the euro area, real house price performance varied significantly among member states. The Netherlands and Spain reported impressive year-on-year increases of 7% and 6%, respectively, while Italy saw a more modest rise of 3%.
- France experienced a decline of 5%.
- Germany saw a decrease of 3%.
This mixed performance highlights the complexities of the housing market landscape in advanced economies, where regional factors significantly influence price trends.
Emerging Market Challenges
Emerging market economies are facing ongoing challenges, with real residential property prices declining by 3.1% year on year in Q3 2024. This downturn has worsened from a 2.5% decline in the previous quarter, primarily due to significant price drops in major economies.
In Asia, real prices decreased by 5.3%, with Hong Kong SAR seeing the most substantial decline at 15%. Other countries in the region, such as Korea and Indonesia, also reported modest decreases, while India maintained stable prices and Singapore experienced a slight increase of 2%.
Latin America and Central Europe Resilience
In Latin America, the housing market showed resilience, with real prices rising by 2.6% year on year. This growth was driven mainly by strong performance in Mexico and Brazil, which recorded increases of 4% and 3%, respectively.
- Central and Eastern European countries also performed well, with an aggregate price growth of 2.2%.
- Significant gains were noted in Bulgaria and Poland.
In stark contrast, Türkiye’s housing market faced severe challenges with a 14% drop, and South Africa continued to struggle with a 3% decline. This stark contrast between regions emphasizes the varying economic conditions and market responses across emerging economies.
Conclusion
Overall, the global housing market in Q3 2024 reflects a complex interplay of factors. Advanced economies are showing signs of recovery, while emerging markets encounter significant headwinds. The ongoing divergence in price trends highlights the necessity for investors and policymakers to closely monitor regional developments and adapt strategies accordingly.
As the world navigates these economic challenges, the housing market remains a crucial indicator of broader economic health and stability.
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