Bernstein Forecasts 30% Jump for Blockchain Lender Figure

Figure Technologies made its public market debut in early September, conducting an initial public offering at $25 per share that raised nearly $800 million and valued the company at approximately $5.3 billion. The blockchain lending firm has since delivered impressive returns to early investors, with shares jumping around 75% in less than a month of trading. Bernstein’s recent endorsement further accelerated this momentum, with FIGR shares rising 6.4% on the news and trading at $42.76 as the investment firm set its price target at $54 per share.

The Bernstein analysis highlights Figure’s unique position at the intersection of traditional finance and blockchain innovation. “Figure’s technology stack brings the liquidity of blockchain capital markets to consumer loans, transforming a ‘balance sheet heavy’ lending model to a ‘capital light’ marketplace business,” the analysts wrote. This transformation represents a fundamental shift in how consumer lending can operate, potentially disrupting the traditional banking model that has dominated the sector for decades.

Central to Bernstein’s bullish thesis is the massive addressable market for credit tokenization, which the analysts estimate exceeds $2 trillion. Figure’s current focus on home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) represents just the beginning of their expansion potential. Bernstein projects that as tokenization technology gains broader adoption across the consumer loan origination market, Figure is positioned to emerge as a key technology partner for both traditional banks and independent originators seeking to modernize their operations.

The data supports Figure’s early leadership in this emerging space. According to RWA.xyz, Figure’s Provenance blockchain network currently maintains approximately $12.85 billion in active loan values, representing a 10% increase over the past 30 days alone. This positions Figure well ahead of competitors in the private credit markets, with the next closest participants—Tradeable and Maple—combining for less than $4 billion in active loans. Since its 2018 founding, Figure has originated $16 billion worth of home loans, establishing itself as what the company describes as “the largest non-bank provider of home equity financing.”

At the core of Figure’s disruptive potential is its proprietary Provenance blockchain network, which facilitates the tokenization of private credit and dramatically accelerates capital access. The technology enables borrowers to receive funding within days of credit approval, compared to the weeks or months typically required in traditional lending processes. This efficiency advantage, combined with the liquidity benefits of blockchain-based capital markets, creates a compelling value proposition for both borrowers and institutional investors.

Founded by Mike Cagney and June Ou in 2018, Figure benefits from leadership with proven fintech expertise. Cagney previously co-founded SoFi, bringing valuable experience in challenging traditional financial institutions with technology-driven solutions. Under their guidance, Figure has developed what Bernstein characterizes as “strong product-market-fit” in the HELOC space, with significant “optionality into other loan types” that could drive future growth beyond their current core business.

Bernstein’s analysis suggests that Figure’s expansion potential extends beyond consumer lending into entirely new asset classes, potentially including equities. As the infrastructure for tokenizing real-world assets continues to mature, Figure’s technology platform and early market position could enable the company to capture value across multiple segments of the financial services industry, making the current $54 price target potentially just the beginning of a longer-term growth story.