XRP’s February Outlook: ChatGPT Reassesses $1 Support Risk

The narrative for XRP shifted violently over a single month. As reported by CryptoPotato, the token initially skyrocketed 30% to $2.40, a move fueled by growing ETF inflows that suggested a bullish breakout. However, this optimism was short-lived. The subsequent rejection and correction were severe, characterized by several consecutive ‘leg downs’ in price. The culmination of this sell-off occurred recently, with XRP plunging below the $1.40 level and struggling to hold at $1.35. This represents a loss of over 40% from its monthly peak, erasing the earlier gains and placing the asset in a precarious technical position.

This sharp decline prompted a revisitation of a critical question: could XRP fall below $1.00? The context for this inquiry had changed dramatically. Just days prior, when XRP was trading around $1.60 after an initial crash, the landscape appeared less grim. At that time, the token seemed to have found a bottom, still trading above what were considered major structural support levels. The broader cryptocurrency market had not yet shown signs of a decisive downturn, and overall sentiment was not entirely bearish. The current price action has invalidated that earlier, more hopeful assessment.

In response to the new, grimmer reality, ChatGPT’s analysis underwent a significant shift. When CryptoPotato first posed the question over the weekend with XRP at $1.60-$1.70, most AI models, including ChatGPT, considered the chances of a drop beneath $1.00 in February to be ‘quite slim.’ The AI’s short answer to the renewed query is now a definitive ‘yes,’ stating the probability is ‘meaningfully higher now.’ This change is rooted in concrete market developments: the confirmed breakdown of higher-timeframe support levels, a decisively bearish turn in the broader market, and entirely shifted sentiment.

ChatGPT’s updated framework assigns specific probabilities to different February outcomes for XRP. It currently estimates only a 40% chance that the token remains above the $1.00 mark for the remainder of the month. The AI anticipates some consolidation and choppy trading following the period of heightened volatility. However, it identifies a 35-40% probability for a specific scenario: a ‘liquidity sweep’ to just under $1.00. This would involve a fast, panic-induced sell-off creating a sharp ‘wick’ below the key level, followed by a swift rebound. ChatGPT notes this scenario has become ‘very real.’

While acknowledging increased risks, ChatGPT still assigns the lowest probability—approximately 15-20%—to a full, sustained breakdown below $1.00. Nevertheless, it emphasizes that this worst-case scenario has evolved from ‘negligible’ just days ago to ‘quite possible’ today. The extended timeline of February itself is a factor; with weeks remaining, there is ‘too much time for such a drop to occur if the overall conditions do not improve rapidly.’

The core of ChatGPT’s bearish reassessment lies in the technical damage inflicted on XRP’s chart. The AI highlights that momentum has ‘accelerated to the downside’ as XRP sold off aggressively, ‘slicing through intermediate supports and failing to hold rebounds.’ This description points to a market lacking conviction from buyers at each successive support level, a classic sign of a downtrend gaining strength. The failure to hold above $1.60, which was previously viewed as a potential bottom, was a critical breach that opened the door to lower price targets.

The situation underscores the volatile and sentiment-driven nature of cryptocurrency markets, where assets like XRP can be propelled by narratives like ETF inflows one moment and crushed by technical breakdowns the next. For investors and traders, the key takeaway is the heightened level of risk surrounding the $1.00 support zone. While a definitive collapse below it is not ChatGPT’s base case, the significantly elevated chances of a test or a brief breach mean that the threshold can no longer be considered a distant safety net. The coming weeks will test whether XRP can find stability or if the downward momentum identified by the AI will indeed push it toward that psychologically critical level.