Introduction
Ripple’s XRP has plunged over 40% in the past year, with a 15% weekly drop and a 26% fortnightly decline, reflecting the extreme fear gripping the broader cryptocurrency market. As the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hits a rare 7 points, this analysis examines XRP’s historical performance during bear markets, its connection to the U.S.-based Ripple corporation, and whether the current bloodletting presents a cyclical buying opportunity or signals further potential downside for the altcoin.
Key Points
- XRP has shown cyclical volatility, with bear market declines of over 80% historically followed by bull market rallies up to 10x from lows.
- Ripple's corporate activities—including stablecoin issuance and regulatory licensing—don't guarantee XRP's price appreciation, as the token isn't directly linked to company performance.
- The SEC lawsuit highlighted XRP's classification as a transactional currency rather than a security, though supply concentration and regular company sales create ongoing selling pressure.
A History of Volatile Cycles
XRP’s price action is a textbook study in crypto volatility. The altcoin’s first pronounced crypto winter occurred in 2018, following a peak above $3. It subsequently lost most of its value, trading near $0.30 for the majority of that bear market. The pattern repeated in the 2021 bull cycle: a surge to around $1.70 in April, an attempted double-top in November, and a subsequent plunge back toward $0.35 by spring 2022.
This cyclical behavior, however, has also created significant opportunities for bottom buyers. XRP remained range-bound around $0.35 until November 2024, when it skyrocketed above $2, later achieving a new all-time high in July 2025. This represented a near 10x return for those who bought during the bear market lows and sold near the peak. The current price action appears to be repeating a familiar pattern of cooling down following a parabolic rally, now sitting on a total market capitalization of approximately $85 billion.
The Ripple Corporation vs. The XRP Token
A critical distinction for investors is the separation between Ripple the company and XRP the cryptocurrency. Unlike many altcoins, XRP is tied to a large, U.S.-based corporation actively expanding its operations. Ripple is building an “ultra-fast” settlement layer for financial institutions and has diversified by issuing a stablecoin, RLUSD, while actively obtaining licenses across major jurisdictions.
Despite this corporate activity, XRP itself is not directly tied to Ripple’s commercial success. As clarified during the company’s lawsuit with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), XRP is positioned as a transactional currency, not a security offering holders equity or dividends. The investment thesis remains largely speculative. Furthermore, while XRP has a fixed supply, a significant portion is concentrated with Ripple itself, which regularly sells tokens to fund operations, creating ongoing potential selling pressure.
Assessing the Current Investment Landscape
In the current bear market, characterized by extreme fear, the fundamental question is whether XRP represents a contrarian opportunity. History provides a clear precedent: altcoins like XRP have produced dramatic, face-melting rallies following prolonged downturns. The cyclical nature of crypto markets suggests that periods of despair have, in the past, been followed by significant recoveries.
However, this history is not a guarantee. As the analysis from CryptoPotato underscores, there is a stark dichotomy in crypto between Bitcoin and “everything else,” with altcoins typically exhibiting less sustainability. With XRP’s market cap already at $85 billion, the scope for a millionaire-making rally from current levels is arguably diminished. Crucially, investors must acknowledge that there could be another 90% of downside before any potential relief rally materializes. The speculative nature of the asset, its supply dynamics, and its decoupling from Ripple’s corporate performance all contribute to a highly uncertain outlook.
📎 Related coverage from: cryptopotato.com
