XRP Wyckoff Analysis: $7.50 Target Despite Year-Long Consolidation

Charting Guy’s analysis, based on XRP/USD Bitstamp charts from November 27, 2025, establishes a comprehensive Fibonacci framework that structures his entire bullish thesis. The retracement is drawn from the cycle low near $0.11400 up to the 2025 peak at approximately $3.317, which he marks as the 1.0 Fibonacci level. This produces a ladder of critical technical levels that define XRP’s current positioning and future potential.

The key Fibonacci levels identified include the 0.5 level at about $0.61495, the 0.618 golden ratio at $0.91531, the 0.702 level just above $1.20, and crucially, the 0.786 level at $1.61246. Charting Guy highlights a broad support band covering the prior 2021 high zone and this 0.786 cluster, roughly spanning from the mid-$1s into the low-$2s. He describes this as XRP ‘building support on prior cycle high as well as top of golden pocket,’ referring to the 0.618-0.786 retracement area that represents a critical accumulation zone.

Beyond the current consolidation range, Charting Guy plots classic Fibonacci extensions that reveal the substantial upside potential if the bullish scenario unfolds. These include the 1.272 extension at approximately $8.29661, the 1.414 extension around $13.38940, and the 1.618 extension near $26.63038. However, his immediate 2026 projection stops short of these longer-term targets, focusing instead on a more conservative move toward roughly $7.50.

The core of Charting Guy’s analysis appears on a two-day XRP/USD chart overlaid with a detailed Wyckoff schematic. The structure begins with a Preliminary Supply (PSY) phase and a Buying Climax (BC) into the low-$3 zone, followed by a Secondary Test (ST) and an Automatic Reaction (AR) that defines the lower boundary of the current trading range. Horizontal lines mark this critical floor near $1.61184, an intermediate band around $1.95, resistance at approximately $2.90, and the upper ceiling just above $3.30.

During mid-2025, XRP printed an ‘UT Phase B’ upthrust into the $3+ resistance before rolling into a downward-sloping channel. The upper boundary of this channel, labeled ‘CREEK,’ connects a series of lower highs, while the lower boundary guides price back toward the $1.61-1.70 support zone. In Charting Guy’s projected scenario, XRP experiences a final spike down to test the blue horizontal support at $1.61184, annotated as the ‘SPRING’ – Wyckoff’s classic final shakeout below range support designed to trap bears and shake out weak hands.

Following this spring, the schematic shows price rebounding to retake the $1.95 area, marked as ‘TEST,’ and establishing a higher low between roughly $2.00 and $2.20 as the first ‘LPS’ (Last Point of Support). The decisive moment comes with a break of the descending ‘CREEK’ trendline – the ‘JATC’ or ‘Jump Across The Creek’ – as XRP accelerates from around $2.20-2.30 through the $2.90 resistance. This breakout is followed by a ‘SOS’ (Sign of Strength) above the former ceiling, with another LPS holding around the $2.90 region, confirming the flip of resistance into support and setting the stage for the final markup phase toward $7.50.

Charting Guy directly addresses concerns about bearish momentum narratives, particularly those centered on the monthly RSI. He notes that the RSI peak occurred in January 2025 and ‘lost momentum ALL 2025 while XRP stayed sideways in a range and held its own.’ Rather than interpreting this as bearish divergence, he calls this ‘a very textbook reaccumulation signal where indicators lose steam to reset and price stays stable.’

This interpretation forms a crucial part of his bullish thesis. While many traders might view momentum loss during sideways action as a warning sign, Charting Guy argues this is precisely what occurs during Wyckoff reaccumulation phases, where smart money accumulates positions while shaking out weak holders. The technical message is unambiguous: as long as the $1.61-1.70 band holds, XRP’s extended consolidation represents preparation for the next leg higher, not distribution before a breakdown.

At press time, with XRP trading at $2.23 after an 8-9% weekly gain, the cryptocurrency sits in a critical juncture. Charting Guy maintains that XRP is ‘still NOT bearish in the slightest’ despite the year of range-bound trading, viewing the current setup as sharply asymmetric with limited downside risk to the $1.61-1.70 support zone and substantial upside potential toward the $7.50 target. The entire thesis hinges on the Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern playing out as projected, with the spring below $1.70 serving as the final capitulation before the anticipated breakout sequence begins.