Introduction
XRP faces a critical technical test as its price approaches crucial long-term support levels, with market technicians identifying Korean exchange Upbit as the primary source of recent selling pressure. The cryptocurrency’s decline has pushed it toward the 12-month rolling VWAP for the first time this year, creating a pivotal moment that could determine whether XRP maintains its current range or falls toward the psychologically important $2.00 level.
Key Points
- Korean exchange Upbit accounted for 84% of XRP spot selling pressure over the last two days, creating concentrated downward pressure
- XRP is testing the 12-month rolling VWAP for the first time this year, a critical technical level that often determines trend direction
- Analysts project potential declines to $2.00 or lower ($1.70-1.80) if current support levels fail, while recovery requires reclaiming $2.50
Critical Technical Support Under Pressure
XRP’s latest downswing has dragged the cryptocurrency into a cluster of long-term volume and mean-reversion levels, creating a crucial technical battleground. Prominent market technician Dom (@traderview2) highlighted that XRP has “reached the 12M rVWAP for the first time this year,” emphasizing that this “really isn’t a level we want to be trading under for awhile.” The 12-month rolling Volume Weighted Average Price (rVWAP) serves as a dynamic fair-value proxy, and sustained closes below this level historically coincide with further probing of high-volume nodes beneath.
Dom’s analysis presents two clear scenarios for XRP’s immediate future. If bulls lose the 12-month rolling VWAP support, “we are looking at the range low of $2 as the next area of interest.” Conversely, a swift recovery would require “$2.50 [to] regain to get out of danger area.” The current configuration shows spot price pressing directly into the 12-month rolling VWAP ribbon after failing to sustain above the prior distribution shelf, a technical setup that often separates trending from mean-reverting phases.
Despite the downward pressure, Dom noted some positive signals in market structure: “Spot orderbooks are skewed towards bids right now which is positive, but snapping the local low will likely send us back to $2 where the rest of the bids sit.” This suggests that while immediate sentiment is negative, underlying demand exists at lower levels, potentially providing a floor for any further decline.
Korean Exchange Upbit Drives Selling Pressure
The geographic concentration of selling has amplified the risk of a deeper price decline, with Korea emerging as the epicenter of near-term spot selling. Dom revealed that “84% of all the spot sell pressure over the last 2 days has came from Upbit,” indicating an unusually concentrated source of downward pressure. This Korean dominance in XRP trading is not unprecedented but creates significant vulnerability when selling intensifies from a single region.
A cumulative volume delta (CVD) breakdown by exchange corroborates the outsized role of the Korean venue. Upbit’s CVD line appears deeply negative while other major exchanges including Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, Kraken, and Bitstamp hover comparatively flat near the zero line. This stark contrast indicates real-coin distribution flowed predominantly through the KRW corridor even as other USD- and USDT-based venues showed less aggressive net selling.
The concentration of selling pressure from Upbit creates an asymmetric risk profile for XRP. While order books across other major exchanges remain relatively balanced, the intense selling from a single geographic region and exchange platform amplifies downside risks. Dom’s observation that “They do NOT look happy over there in Korean” underscores the sentiment-driven nature of the current selling pressure emanating from this key market.
Technical Outlook and Price Projections
Analysts are closely watching the $2.00 psychological level as a critical support zone. IncomeSharks provided a high-timeframe perspective with a daily XRP/USD chart showing a broad demand zone centered just under $2.00, commenting: “XRP — If you missed it under $2 you’ll probably have a chance to bid it again.” This analysis highlights how the late-summer price impulse failed to retake overhead resistance and how subsequent lower highs left a clean air pocket toward the December–March value area.
The technical setup suggests a clear path for further declines if current support levels fail. IncomeSharks expects a retracement as low as $1.80-$1.70 if the psychologically important $2 mark doesn’t hold. This projection aligns with Dom’s assessment that losing the 12-month rVWAP could trigger a move toward the range low around $2.00.
At press time, XRP traded at $2.21, positioning it precariously near critical technical levels. The convergence of technical factors—including the test of the 12-month rVWAP, concentrated selling pressure from Korea, and the clear air pocket toward lower support levels—creates a high-stakes environment for XRP traders. The outcome of this technical battle will likely determine whether XRP stabilizes in its current range or experiences a more significant correction toward the $2.00 handle and potentially beyond.
📎 Related coverage from: newsbtc.com