XRP Struggles Below $1.90 as Risk Metrics Signal Consolidation

The recent price action for XRP, slipping below $1.90, is symptomatic of a market lacking clear directional conviction. As reported by CryptoQuant, the market is currently in a state of “cautious equilibrium.” This is not a market in freefall, but one where selling pressure continues to weigh on any attempts at stabilization. According to Binance data, XRP is trading around $1.89, a level that places it firmly back into a zone where downside risk is being reassessed due to the absence of strong demand on rebounds.

The most telling structural signal is the significant gap between the current price and the 200-day moving average, which sits near $2.54. This 25% deficit is a clear indicator of ongoing structural weakness. Historically, sustained bullish phases for assets like XRP tend to develop only after price reclaims and holds above this long-term trend reference. Its continued distance from that level suggests the market is still operating within a corrective range, where rallies are more likely to be met with selling than extended by conviction buying.

The CryptoQuant report emphasizes that understanding XRP’s current behavior requires a risk-adjusted lens. From this perspective, the metrics describe a market in balance, not in trend. The 30-day Sharpe Ratio, a key measure of risk-adjusted returns, sits at just 0.034—a level effectively near zero. This indicates that over the past month, holding XRP has provided minimal compensation for the volatility risk assumed, a hallmark of markets stuck in consolidation.

While the Sharpe Z-Score has turned positive to approximately 0.70, suggesting a relative improvement in return quality compared to XRP’s recent history, it remains well below the threshold associated with statistically significant trend formation. In practical terms, this implies that while the most aggressive selling pressure may have eased, the market has not transitioned into a regime of strong, sustainable performance. Short-term dynamics reinforce this: the 7-day Sharpe Momentum stands at a weak 0.03, pointing to gradual base-building rather than the impulsive buying needed for a trend reversal.

The daily chart for XRP confirms the narrative from the risk metrics. Price action shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows since a decisive breakdown in October, confirming sustained selling pressure. XRP is trading firmly below all major moving averages, with the downward-trending 50-day average acting as dynamic resistance and the 100-day and 200-day averages looming far above.

Recent attempts to reclaim the $2.10–$2.20 resistance zone failed quickly, highlighting a lack of follow-through from buyers. Critically, selling volume during downside moves remains more pronounced than buying volume during rebounds. This imbalance points to a market characterized by defensive positioning and distribution, not accumulation. As long as XRP holds below the 50-day moving average and fails to reclaim the $2.20–$2.30 zone, its behavior is more consistent with consolidation within a bearish structure than with the early stages of a trend recovery.