XRP Sees $300M Exodus as Holders Shift Strategy

According to on-chain data from Glassnode, investors have withdrawn more than 140 million XRP, valued at approximately $309 million, from cryptocurrency exchanges. This substantial movement represents one of the largest single outflows in recent XRP history and typically indicates accumulation behavior, where investors are buying XRP and transferring it to personal wallets for long-term holding.

The timing of these withdrawals is particularly noteworthy given the recent market volatility. Earlier waves of selling by both long and short-term holders had created downward pressure on XRP’s price, making this renewed accumulation activity a potential respite from bearish momentum. The scale of these movements suggests institutional or large-scale investors are repositioning their XRP holdings amid current market conditions.

Exchange withdrawals of this magnitude often precede significant price movements, as reducing the available supply on trading platforms can create buying pressure. However, the current market environment presents a more nuanced picture, with other on-chain metrics suggesting caution may still be warranted despite the bullish implications of large-scale outflows.

While the exchange withdrawals suggest accumulation, the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH NUPL) indicator reveals a more complex situation. The LTH NUPL has declined and is now approaching the critical 0.5 level, a historical threshold where market optimism has traditionally given way to weakness in previous XRP cycles.

Historical data shows that when the LTH NUPL drops below 0.5, it often triggers XRP price corrections as long-term holders begin selling to secure profits. The current decline indicates that many long-term investors may be entering a distribution phase, creating a counter-narrative to the accumulation suggested by exchange outflows. This divergence between withdrawal activity and holder sentiment metrics creates uncertainty about XRP’s near-term direction.

The cautious underlying market sentiment can be partially attributed to recent liquidation events that have rocked the broader cryptocurrency market. On October 10, XRP experienced a flash crash below $1 before retracing back above $2 within 24 hours after $19 billion was wiped out from the market. Another significant bleed occurred on November 3, with approximately $1.4 billion liquidated in a single day, contributing to XRP’s 16% decline over the past month before its recent 4.78% recovery.

Despite the mixed fundamental signals, technical analysis provides a more optimistic outlook for XRP. Pseudonymous crypto analyst ‘Cantonese Cat’ has shared a bullish projection using Fibonacci Extensions to map XRP’s potential trajectory. On the monthly chart, XRP is currently testing the 0.886 Fibonacci level near $2.25, which has historically served as critical support preceding major upward moves.

The analysis suggests that if XRP maintains this key support level, the next impulse wave could target the 1.272 Fibonacci Extension around $8.29. This would represent a substantial 260% increase from current levels above $2.3. The chart also identifies earlier resistance near $3.31, aligning with the 1.0 Fibonacci level, which XRP would need to reclaim to confirm the bullish structure.

Beyond the initial $8.29 target, Cantonese Cat’s analysis identifies subsequent Fibonacci extensions at $13.38 (1.414 Fib) and $26.63 (1.618 Fib) as potential long-term target zones if bullish momentum continues. These projections provide a framework for understanding XRP’s potential upside, though they remain contingent on the cryptocurrency maintaining critical support levels amid current market uncertainty.

The current XRP landscape presents investors with conflicting indicators that require careful interpretation. The massive exchange withdrawals suggest accumulation and potential price appreciation, while the declining LTH NUPL warns of possible distribution and correction. This divergence reflects the complex nature of cryptocurrency markets, where multiple factors can simultaneously influence price action.

According to CoinMarketCap data, XRP has shown resilience despite recent market turbulence, recovering 4.78% after falling more than 16% over the past month. This recovery, coupled with the technical analysis projections, suggests that if XRP can maintain its current support levels, the bullish case remains intact despite the cautious signals from long-term holder metrics.

For investors and traders, the key will be monitoring whether the $2.25 support level holds and watching for confirmation of either accumulation or distribution patterns in the coming weeks. The resolution of these contradictory signals will likely determine whether XRP embarks on the projected path toward $8.29 or faces further pressure from profit-taking long-term holders.