XRP Sees $2B On-Chain Losses, Sparking Rally Speculation

According to data from Santiment, XRP experienced approximately $2 billion in realized losses over a recent one-week span, marking the most significant such spike since 2022. Realized losses occur when investors sell their holdings for less than their original purchase price. This metric is widely interpreted as a measure of market capitulation, reflecting the moment when weaker, often retail, holders exit their positions at a loss. The scale of this event has drawn significant attention from market participants, as such extreme readings often indicate a flushing out of speculative excess.

Analysts use on-chain data like realized profit and loss to assess shifts in supply and demand dynamics, especially during periods of sharp price volatility. The recent surge suggests a substantial volume of XRP changed hands below its acquisition cost. While this data highlights the intensity of current selling pressure, Santiment and other observers note that price direction ultimately depends on broader factors, including overall crypto market sentiment, liquidity conditions, and subsequent buying activity.

The historical precedent fueling current speculation is clear. Santiment’s data indicates that 39 months ago, a similar weekly milestone of -$1.93 billion in realized losses was followed by an XRP price jump of 114% over the subsequent eight months. This pattern aligns with a classic market cycle narrative where extreme capitulation clears the path for a new uptrend, as selling exhaustion meets renewed demand.

However, the provided analysis cautions that this outcome emerged from a specific set of market conditions that are not guaranteed to repeat. At the time of reporting, XRP was trading near $1.45, showing a slight 1.50% gain over 24 hours but remaining down approximately 24% for the month. Its movement largely mirrored Bitcoin during a broader market bounce. Traders note that such short-term strength could be the start of a reversal or merely a brief reprieve within a longer corrective phase, emphasizing the need for confirmation through increased trading volume and the breach of key resistance levels.

The dramatic on-chain data has revived a wide spectrum of price predictions. On one extreme, accounts like CryptoBull have circulated targets of $13, $27, and even $70 for XRP over the next three months. Such forecasts, as noted in the analysis, are viewed as highly speculative and would require “dramatic new capital flows” far beyond current market optimism. Basic market capitalization math reveals these moves demand an influx of demand that appears unrealistic in the near term.

In contrast, more grounded analytical approaches have been applied. Other analysts, examining prior cycle lows, have used a multiple of roughly 2.8x to estimate a potential macro price floor for XRP between $0.75 and $0.85. This provides a technical counterpoint to the wildly bullish social media predictions, framing the current volatility within a longer-term cycle context.

Taken together, the $2 billion realized loss spike has undeniably flashed a notable on-chain signal. Whether it triggers a repeat of history’s 114% rally will hinge on incoming demand, the trajectory of broader crypto sentiment led by Bitcoin, and the emergence of sustained buying pressure in the weeks ahead. For now, the market is watching to see if this metric of pain truly precedes gain.