XRP Revisits 2017 Bull Pattern: Can History Repeat?

Ripple’s XRP has drawn significant attention from technical analysts after forming a chart pattern that bears a striking resemblance to its 2017 market structure. According to analyst JD, the token’s behavior is following a near-identical script. In 2017, XRP broke out from a multi-year triangle pattern, consolidated for over a year, held support above the 21-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and then entered a parabolic surge in January 2018.

The current setup is remarkably similar. XRP has broken out from a large triangle and is now bouncing off that same critical 21-month EMA support level. This technical replication has raised expectations among traders that XRP might be preparing for another strong upward move, provided the pattern holds. The core thesis, as articulated by JD, is that history could be repeating itself, setting the stage for a potential significant rally if key conditions are met.

However, the path forward is not without immediate hurdles. XRP recently experienced a sharp rally, jumping from below $1.90 to $2.41 within a week, fueled by factors like increased ETF inflows and a reduction of token supply on exchanges. This momentum has since faded, with the price retracing to $2.07 at the time of the original report. The asset now faces strong technical resistance.

Analyst ChartNerd highlighted that both the Weekly 20 EMA and the mid-line of the Gaussian channel are positioned near $2.26, creating a formidable resistance zone. “Fail to push up/break them, then we resort back to multi-month support,” ChartNerd cautioned. Furthermore, XRP is currently testing a former triangle support line, which has now flipped to act as resistance.

Despite these near-term challenges, some analysts are looking at much larger potential gains based on the structural similarity to 2017. Analyst Javon Marks pointed out that during its previous breakout, XRP not only reached but exceeded its measured move target. He suggests that with an “almost exact structure replication,” XRP could be en route to a measured move target above $16.50. This projection represents a potential gain of more than 663% from recent levels, though Marks notes this view is based purely on chart structure and does not account for external market forces.

While the technical pattern is compelling, current market conditions present a more nuanced picture. Analyst CryptoWZRD noted that XRP’s daily candle recently closed indecisively, stating that “a move above the $2.1000 resistance is a bullish territory.” The analyst also emphasized that Bitcoin’s next directional move will likely guide the broader cryptocurrency market, including XRP.

Signs of caution are emerging. Analyst Ali Martinez pointed to the potential formation of a gravestone doji candlestick pattern, which can signal weakness and a potential reversal. Concurrently, on-chain activity from large holders, or “whales,” has slowed. A report from CryptoPotato indicated that large XRP transfers spiked during the recent price surge but have since dropped off, suggesting decreased participation from major investors. This reduction in whale activity could indicate a lack of conviction for a sustained push higher at current levels.

The overall sentiment, as captured in the analysis, remains neutral. The convergence of a historically bullish pattern with immediate technical resistance and mixed market signals creates a pivotal moment for XRP. The token’s ability to break through the $2.26 resistance zone and sustain volume-backed upward pressure will be critical in determining whether the 2017 playbook leads to a repeat performance or a rejection back toward longer-term support levels.